luckadjusted

Week 8 2021 · October 28, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Cardinals, Week 8 2021: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Cardinals 24–21, but the Cardinals played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Packers.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:26 left): the Packers were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 17 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Green Bay Packers 24
Arizona Cardinals 21

October 28, 2021 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −6.5

Luck index +65 Packers very lucky · −65 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 3, Cardinals win 7.

  1. 1 GB 34 ARI 17
  2. 2 GB 27 ARI 20
  3. 3 GB 27 ARI 24
  4. 4 GB 23 ARI 25
  5. 5 GB 17 ARI 21
  6. 6 GB 13 ARI 20
  7. 7 GB 17 ARI 27
  8. 8 GB 14 ARI 27
  9. 9 GB 10 ARI 27
  10. 10 GB 16 ARI 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 35% of them, Cardinals 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+3.5%
Packers by 9–168.8%
Packers by 1–821.0%
Level after regulation2.4%
Cardinals by 1–827.5%
Cardinals by 9–1620.8%
Cardinals by 17+16.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 5.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:18 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedFace Mask on the Cardinals (DeAndre Hopkins), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 2597 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +8% ARI ARI: Touchdown
2 Q2 6:52 The Cardinals fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +11% GB ARI: Punt
3 Q3 13:58 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +7% GB ARI: Touchdown
4 Q4 15:00 The Packers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q4 13:17 The Cardinals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +9% ARI ARI: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:26 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +17% ARI GB: End of game
7 Q4 2:46 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% ARI ARI: Turnover
8 Q4 1:21 The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% ARI ARI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • J.J. Watt (ARI DE), out · 1.3 pts
  • Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Max Garcia (ARI C), out · 0.2 pts
  • Davante Adams (GB WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Josh Myers (GB C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Allen Lazard (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kevin King (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Za'Darius Smith (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 70% · Cardinals 30%

Final margin
Packers by 3
Luck in points
1.9 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 4.9
Replay with same day's form
Packers 35% · Cardinals 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2021 games · Packers · Cardinals

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