Week 8 2021 · October 28, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Packers at Cardinals, Week 8 2021: who deserved to win?
The Packers beat the Cardinals 24–21, but the replays lean toward the Cardinals: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff the Cardinals were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:26 left): the Packers were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 15 points of win probability to the Cardinals.
Final
 Green Bay Packers | 24 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Packers very lucky · −67 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Packers win 3, Cardinals win 7.
- 1 GB 31 ARI 15
- 2 GB 28 ARI 20
- 3 GB 30 ARI 27
- 4 GB 20 ARI 22
- 5 GB 13 ARI 17
- 6 GB 13 ARI 20
- 7 GB 28 ARI 38
- 8 GB 6 ARI 19
- 9 GB 6 ARI 23
- 10 GB 28 ARI 52
Your call
Did the Packers earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Packers win 33% of them, Cardinals 67%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Packers by 17+ | 3.9% |
| Packers by 9–16 | 8.5% |
| Packers by 1–8 | 20.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.9% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 26.6% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 21.5% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 16.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Packers 7 for 60 yards, Cardinals 7 for 59 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Packers (Equanimeous St. Brown), 10 yards | +2% ARI +0.8 pts |
| Q1 12:58 | Face Mask on the Packers (Rashan Gary), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +5% ARI +2.0 pts |
| Q1 10:00 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% GB +1.5 pts |
| Q1 8:18 | Face Mask on the Cardinals (DeAndre Hopkins), 15 yards | +4% GB +1.3 pts |
| Q1 2:56 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Markus Golden), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% GB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 11:50 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Packers (Malik Taylor), 10 yards | +3% ARI +0.9 pts |
| Q2 5:41 | Defensive Holding on the Packers, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +1% GB 0.0 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (Darrell Daniels), 10 yards | +1% GB +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:42 | Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals (Jordan Phillips), 15 yards | +5% GB +1.0 pts |
| Q3 8:41 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Packers (Dean Lowry), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARI +0.5 pts |
| Q4 14:56 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Rasul Douglas), 11 yards | +3% ARI +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:55 | Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Cardinals (Byron Murphy), 2 yards | +1% GB +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:49 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals (Marco Wilson), 2 yards | +2% GB +0.3 pts |
| Q4 3:39 | Delay of Game on the Packers, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% ARI +1.4 pts |
Packers penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:22 | The Packers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% GB | GB: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 6:52 | The Cardinals fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% GB | ARI: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 12:28 | The Packers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +6% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 9:22 | The Cardinals converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +7% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 15:00 | The Packers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +6% GB | GB: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 3:26 | The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected | +15% ARI | GB: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 2:46 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +12% ARI | ARI: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 1:21 | The Cardinals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +12% ARI | ARI: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- J.J. Watt (ARI DE), out · 1.3 pts
- Rodney Hudson (ARI C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Max Garcia (ARI C), out · 0.2 pts
- Davante Adams (GB WR), out (IR) · 1.3 pts
- Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
- Josh Myers (GB C), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Allen Lazard (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Kevin King (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Za'Darius Smith (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Packers 72% · Cardinals 28%
- Final margin
- Packers by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.2 for the Cardinals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Packers by 4.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Packers 33% · Cardinals 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2021 games · 
Packers · 
Cardinals
More from Week 8 2021
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 19–13 · replay 27% for the winner
- Bengals at Jets NYJ 34–31 · replay 60% for the winner
- Rams at Texans LA 38–22 · replay 99% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 26–11 · replay 92% for the winner
- Eagles at Lions PHI 44–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Steelers at Browns PIT 15–10 · replay 51% for the winner
- 49ers at Bears SF 33–22 · replay 96% for the winner
- Titans at Colts TEN 34–31 · replay 39% for the winner
- Jaguars at Seahawks SEA 31–7 · replay 62% for the winner
- Patriots at Chargers NE 27–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints NO 36–27 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Broncos DEN 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Cowboys at Vikings DAL 20–16 · replay 94% for the winner
- Giants at Chiefs KC 20–17 · replay 81% for the winner