luckadjusted

Week 8 2021 · October 31, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Lions, Week 8 2021: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Lions 44–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Eagles win 10 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 59% favorites.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 44
Detroit Lions 6

October 31, 2021 · Ford Field · Closing line: Eagles −3

Luck index +2 Eagles about even · −2 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 10, Lions win 0.

  1. 1 PHI 35 DET 0
  2. 2 PHI 30 DET 3
  3. 3 PHI 27 DET 3
  4. 4 PHI 23 DET 3
  5. 5 PHI 22 DET 3
  6. 6 PHI 19 DET 3
  7. 7 PHI 16 DET 2
  8. 8 PHI 24 DET 13
  9. 9 PHI 24 DET 17
  10. 10 PHI 17 DET 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 98% of them, Lions 2%. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 38.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+76.2%
Eagles by 9–1615.8%
Eagles by 1–85.9%
Level after regulation0.4%
Lions by 1–81.6%
Lions by 9–160.1%
Lions by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 38. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 28.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Seibert, 47 yds missed · 76% expected
  • J. Elliott, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Elliott, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Elliott, 41 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:06 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% PHI DET: Punt
2 Q1 12:13 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +4% DET PHI: Punt
3 Q1 8:41 A. Seibert missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 9 of 16 from 45+ before +8% PHI DET: Punt
4 Q1 4:46 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Amani Oruwariye), 2 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1872 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +5% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q1 3:14 The Eagles converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +4% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q1 1:51 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +4% PHI DET: Punt
7 Q2 8:33 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +4% PHI DET: Punt
8 Q2 1:12 Illegal Formation on the Lions, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +7% PHI PHI: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Frank Ragnow (DET C), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Romeo Okwara (DET LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Quintez Cephus (DET WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Harris (PHI FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Brooks (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Miles Sanders (PHI RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Eric Wilson (PHI LB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 100% · Lions 0%

Final margin
Eagles by 38
Luck in points
9.1 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 28.9
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 98% · Lions 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2021 games · Eagles · Lions

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