Week 8 2021 · October 31, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Jaguars at Seahawks, Week 8 2021: who deserved to win?
The Seahawks beat the Jaguars 31–7, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
Before kickoff the Seahawks were 62% favorites.
Final
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 |
|---|---|
 Seattle Seahawks | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +38 Seahawks lucky · −38 Jaguars
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jaguars win 4, Seahawks win 6.
- 1 JAX 26 SEA 6
- 2 JAX 21 SEA 10
- 3 JAX 34 SEA 28
- 4 JAX 36 SEA 34
- 5 JAX 12 SEA 14
- 6 JAX 15 SEA 20
- 7 JAX 12 SEA 20
- 8 JAX 12 SEA 24
- 9 JAX 13 SEA 30
- 10 JAX 6 SEA 31
Your call
Did the Seahawks earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jaguars win 38% of them, Seahawks 62%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jaguars by 17+ | 6.5% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 10.8% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 18.1% |
| Level after regulation | 2.7% |
| Seahawks by 1–8 | 24.7% |
| Seahawks by 9–16 | 19.7% |
| Seahawks by 17+ | 17.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Jaguars 12 for 93 yards, Seahawks 5 for 40 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:12 | Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (DaVon Hamilton), 15 yards | +1% SEA +0.9 pts |
| Q1 0:10 | Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% SEA +0.7 pts |
| Q2 13:00 | Taunting on the Jaguars (Rayshawn Jenkins), 15 yards | +3% SEA +1.7 pts |
| Q2 12:22 | Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JAX +0.5 pts |
| Q2 9:31 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Seahawks (D.K. Metcalf), 15 yards | +2% JAX +1.2 pts |
| Q2 2:41 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SEA +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:54 | Roughing the Passer on the Jaguars (Jihad Ward), 7 yards | 0% SEA +1.9 pts |
| Q2 0:28 | Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (K'Lavon Chaisson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +4% SEA +3.5 pts |
| Q3 8:09 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Dakota Allen), 7 yards | 0% SEA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:08 | Illegal Formation on the Jaguars (Chapelle Russell), 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SEA +0.5 pts |
| Q3 4:58 | Delay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JAX +0.4 pts |
| Q3 3:53 | Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SEA +0.8 pts |
| Q4 14:02 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Freddie Swain), 10 yards | 0% JAX +1.4 pts |
| Q4 9:58 | Defensive Holding on the Seahawks (Ugo Amadi), 5 yards, wiping out the play | 0% JAX +2.3 pts |
| Q4 8:53 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards | 0% SEA +2.1 pts |
| Q4 8:26 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SEA +0.4 pts |
| Q4 1:43 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Nevin Lawson), 9 yards | 0% SEA +0.7 pts |
Jaguars penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Seahawks’ chance of winning
As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:36 | The Jaguars converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +7% JAX | JAX: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:13 | The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +4% SEA | JAX: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 5:02 | The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +3% JAX | SEA: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 4:22 | The Seahawks converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +6% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 2:57 | The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +3% SEA | JAX: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 0:10 | Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% SEA | SEA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 6:13 | The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +3% SEA | JAX: End of half |
| 8 | Q2 0:28 | Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (K'Lavon Chaisson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 809 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 | +4% SEA | SEA: Field goal |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Russell Wilson (SEA QB), out (IR), replaced by g.smith · 6.7 pts
- Chris Carson (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- A.J. Cann (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- A.J. Cann (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Brandon Linder (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jaguars 0% · Seahawks 100%
- Final margin
- Seahawks by 24
- Luck in points
- 2.6 for the Jaguars
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Seahawks by 26.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Jaguars 38% · Seahawks 62% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2021 games · 
Jaguars · 
Seahawks
More from Week 8 2021
- Packers at Cardinals GB 24–21 · replay 33% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 19–13 · replay 27% for the winner
- Bengals at Jets NYJ 34–31 · replay 60% for the winner
- Rams at Texans LA 38–22 · replay 99% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 26–11 · replay 92% for the winner
- Eagles at Lions PHI 44–6 · replay 98% for the winner
- Steelers at Browns PIT 15–10 · replay 51% for the winner
- 49ers at Bears SF 33–22 · replay 96% for the winner
- Titans at Colts TEN 34–31 · replay 39% for the winner
- Patriots at Chargers NE 27–24 · replay 25% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints NO 36–27 · replay 22% for the winner
- Washington at Broncos DEN 17–10 · replay 48% for the winner
- Cowboys at Vikings DAL 20–16 · replay 94% for the winner
- Giants at Chiefs KC 20–17 · replay 81% for the winner