luckadjusted

Week 8 2021 · October 31, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Seahawks, Week 8 2021: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Jaguars 31–7, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.5 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:13 left): the Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 10 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 7
Seattle Seahawks 31

October 31, 2021 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −4

Luck index +43 Seahawks lucky · −43 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 4, Seahawks win 6.

  1. 1 JAX 36 SEA 18
  2. 2 JAX 18 SEA 7
  3. 3 JAX 19 SEA 13
  4. 4 JAX 24 SEA 21
  5. 5 JAX 21 SEA 23
  6. 6 JAX 16 SEA 21
  7. 7 JAX 8 SEA 17
  8. 8 JAX 12 SEA 24
  9. 9 JAX 10 SEA 27
  10. 10 JAX 16 SEA 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 43% of them, Seahawks 57%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+7.3%
Jaguars by 9–1614.0%
Jaguars by 1–819.6%
Level after regulation2.3%
Seahawks by 1–825.6%
Seahawks by 9–1616.7%
Seahawks by 17+14.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 26.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:36 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +7% JAX JAX: Punt
2 Q1 10:13 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% SEA JAX: Punt
3 Q1 5:02 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +3% JAX SEA: Touchdown
4 Q1 4:22 The Seahawks converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +7% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q1 2:57 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +4% SEA JAX: Punt
6 Q1 0:10 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:13 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +3% SEA JAX: End of half
8 Q2 0:28 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (K'Lavon Chaisson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 809 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +4% SEA SEA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Russell Wilson (SEA QB), out (IR), replaced by g.smith · 6.7 pts
  • Chris Carson (SEA RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • A.J. Cann (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • A.J. Cann (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 0% · Seahawks 100%

Final margin
Seahawks by 24
Luck in points
2.2 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 26.2
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 43% · Seahawks 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2021 games · Jaguars · Seahawks

More from Week 8 2021