luckadjusted

Week 8 2021 · October 31, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bengals at Jets, Week 8 2021: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Bengals 34–31 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Bengals.

An off day for the Bengals: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 76% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Bengals were 80% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:19 left): the Jets converted 3rd & 6, worth 11 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Cincinnati Bengals 31
New York Jets 34

October 31, 2021 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −11.5

Luck index +38 Jets lucky · −38 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bengals win 4, Jets win 6.

  1. 1 CIN 40 NYJ 21
  2. 2 CIN 30 NYJ 19
  3. 3 CIN 30 NYJ 23
  4. 4 CIN 12 NYJ 9
  5. 5 CIN 31 NYJ 33
  6. 6 CIN 23 NYJ 28
  7. 7 CIN 21 NYJ 30
  8. 8 CIN 20 NYJ 33
  9. 9 CIN 13 NYJ 30
  10. 10 CIN 24 NYJ 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Bengals

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Jets they would win 76% of the time; with this day’s form, 38%.

37 points apart for the Bengals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bengals offenseEPA per play gained +0.13 +0.14 worse by 0.01
Bengals defenseEPA per play allowed +0.29 +0.11 worse by 0.18
Jets offenseEPA per play gained +0.29 +0.01 better by 0.28
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed +0.13 +0.18 better by 0.04

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bengals win 38% of them, Jets 62%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bengals by 17+7.0%
Bengals by 9–1611.9%
Bengals by 1–817.8%
Level after regulation2.0%
Jets by 1–823.6%
Jets by 9–1618.4%
Jets by 17+19.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 7.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Ammendola, 54 yds missed · 60% expected
  • E. McPherson, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 24 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Bengals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:43 The Bengals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CIN CIN: Punt
2 Q2 4:14 The Bengals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% CIN CIN: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:19 The Jets converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +11% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
4 Q3 9:38 The Jets converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +9% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
5 Q4 13:12 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +10% CIN NYJ: Field goal
6 Q4 7:36 The Bengals converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:45 The Jets’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: End of game
8 Q4 2:24 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% NYJ CIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Corey Davis (NYJ WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • Mekhi Becton (NYJ T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Bryce Huff (NYJ DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Braden Mann (NYJ P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trae Waynes (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Xavier Su'a-Filo (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bengals 10% · Jets 90%

Final margin
Jets by 3
Luck in points
4.1 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 7.1
Replay with same day's form
Bengals 38% · Jets 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2021 games · Bengals · Jets

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