luckadjusted

Week 8 2021 · October 31, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams at Texans, Week 8 2021: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Texans 38–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 10 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 1.9 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Rams were 90% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:27 left): the Rams were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 12 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 38
Houston Texans 22

October 31, 2021 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Rams −17

Luck index +2 Rams about even · −2 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 10, Texans win 0.

  1. 1 LA 47 HOU 3
  2. 2 LA 49 HOU 14
  3. 3 LA 48 HOU 19
  4. 4 LA 29 HOU 3
  5. 5 LA 46 HOU 23
  6. 6 LA 34 HOU 14
  7. 7 LA 47 HOU 31
  8. 8 LA 50 HOU 37
  9. 9 LA 17 HOU 7
  10. 10 LA 24 HOU 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 98% of them, Texans 2%. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+83.0%
Rams by 9–1611.4%
Rams by 1–83.8%
Level after regulation0.2%
Texans by 1–81.2%
Texans by 9–160.4%
Texans by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 12.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 27 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 45 yds missed · 79% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:14 The Rams converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:46 The Rams converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +6% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:52 The Rams converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +6% LA LA: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 0:27 The Rams were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +12% HOU LA: Field goal
5 Q2 14:19 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% LA HOU: Punt
6 Q2 8:58 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% HOU LA: Field goal
7 Q2 8:14 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +10% LA HOU: Punt
8 Q2 0:11 Illegal Use of Hands on the Rams (Ernest Jones), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 178 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409 +4% HOU HOU: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Tyrod Taylor (HOU QB), out (IR), replaced by d.mills · 0.9 pts
  • Marcus Cannon (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Desmond King (HOU CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Britt (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Pharaoh Brown (HOU TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Whitworth (LA T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Darious Williams (LA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Justin Hollins (LA LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 100% · Texans 0%

Final margin
Rams by 16
Luck in points
3.4 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 12.6
Replay with same day's form
Rams 98% · Texans 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2021 games · Rams · Texans

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