2021 season · final
Tennessee Titans, 2021: game by game
The Titans went 12–5 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.7 wins. Luck added 2.3: the 3rd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–2.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.8.
Every game
How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Cardinals | L 13–38 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 2 | @ Seahawks | W 33–30 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 3 | vs Colts | W 25–16 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 4 | @ Jets | L 24–27 | 71% | −71 |
| Week 5 | @ Jaguars | W 37–19 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 6 | vs Bills | W 34–31 | 56% | +44 |
| Week 7 | vs Chiefs | W 27–3 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 8 | @ Colts | W 34–31 | 39% | +61 |
| Week 9 | @ Rams | W 28–16 | 38% | +62 |
| Week 10 | vs Saints | W 23–21 | 36% | +64 |
| Week 11 | vs Texans | L 13–22 | 89% | −89 |
| Week 12 | @ Patriots | L 13–36 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 14 | vs Jaguars | W 20–0 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 15 | @ Steelers | L 13–19 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 16 | vs 49ers | W 20–17 | 33% | +67 |
| Week 17 | vs Dolphins | W 34–3 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 18 | @ Texans | W 28–25 | 74% | +26 |
| Divisional round | vs Bengals | L 16–19 | 81% | −81 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Titans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.69 | +12.8 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −1.2 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.12 | −8.8 |
| Injuries | −0.20 | −8.3 |
| Kicks | −0.48 | 0.0 |
| Judgment calls | −0.48 | −1.6 |