luckadjusted

Week 5 2021 · October 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Jaguars, Week 5 2021: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Jaguars 37–19 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.6 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Titans were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:19 left): Return touchdown by the Titans, worth 43 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 37
Jacksonville Jaguars 19

October 10, 2021 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Titans −4

Luck index +38 Titans lucky · −38 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 6, Jaguars win 4.

  1. 1 TEN 41 JAX 17
  2. 2 TEN 23 JAX 7
  3. 3 TEN 30 JAX 17
  4. 4 TEN 24 JAX 14
  5. 5 TEN 26 JAX 20
  6. 6 TEN 24 JAX 21
  7. 7 TEN 23 JAX 26
  8. 8 TEN 20 JAX 27
  9. 9 TEN 17 JAX 30
  10. 10 TEN 6 JAX 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 62% of them, Jaguars 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 18.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+18.0%
Titans by 9–1616.5%
Titans by 1–824.9%
Level after regulation3.4%
Jaguars by 1–819.0%
Jaguars by 9–1612.3%
Jaguars by 17+5.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 13.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Wright, 53 yds missed · 64% expected
  • R. Bullock, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 56%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:19 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Jaguars fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the TitansSpecial teams +43% TEN JAX: Touchdown
2 Q1 11:21 The Jaguars missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +6% TEN JAX: Punt
3 Q1 4:02 The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +10% TEN TEN: Touchdown
4 Q1 2:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Chris Claybrooks), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 707 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +6% TEN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q2 10:41 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +6% TEN JAX: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:01 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +12% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:27 M. Wright missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +6% TEN JAX: End of half
8 Q4 11:03 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Caleb Farley), 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 18 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +19% JAX JAX: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • A.J. Cann (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • A.J. Cann (JAX G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Lambo (JAX K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Roy Robertson-Harris (JAX DT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Julio Jones (TEN WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Bud Dupree (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Brett Kern (TEN P), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 98% · Jaguars 2%

Final margin
Titans by 18
Luck in points
4.4 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 13.6
Replay with same day's form
Titans 62% · Jaguars 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2021 games · Titans · Jaguars

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