luckadjusted

Week 5 2021 · October 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Texans, Week 5 2021: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Texans 25–22 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:56 left): Illegal Shift on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 26 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

New England Patriots 25
Houston Texans 22

October 10, 2021 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −8

Luck index +24 Patriots about even · −24 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 8, Texans win 2.

  1. 1 NE 42 HOU 17
  2. 2 NE 33 HOU 13
  3. 3 NE 20 HOU 3
  4. 4 NE 27 HOU 14
  5. 5 NE 23 HOU 13
  6. 6 NE 24 HOU 17
  7. 7 NE 18 HOU 14
  8. 8 NE 22 HOU 20
  9. 9 NE 13 HOU 17
  10. 10 NE 13 HOU 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 76% of them, Texans 24%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+23.4%
Patriots by 9–1622.9%
Patriots by 1–826.4%
Level after regulation4.3%
Texans by 1–814.8%
Texans by 9–165.8%
Texans by 17+2.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 14.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • N. Folk, 52 yds made · 71% expected
  • N. Folk, 52 yds made · 72% expected
  • N. Folk, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 56 yds missed · 62% expected
  • N. Folk, 21 yds made · 100% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 94%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:17 The Texans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +8% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q2 13:09 The Texans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +16% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q2 4:59 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +9% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q2 2:50 The Texans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +9% HOU HOU: Field goal
5 Q4 9:36 The Patriots converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +15% NE NE: Touchdown
6 Q4 5:18 Roughing the Passer on the Texans (Maliek Collins), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 11 flags in 1589 snaps before, position avg 1 per 273 +12% NE NE: Field goal
7 Q4 3:58 The Patriots converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% NE NE: Field goal
8 Q4 1:56 Illegal Shift on the Patriots, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +26% HOU HOU: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Deshaun Watson (HOU QB), out, replaced by d.mills · 8.3 pts
  • Marcus Cannon (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Charles Omenihu (HOU DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jalen Mills (NE CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (NE T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Michael Onwenu (NE OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Michael Onwenu (NE G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Devin Asiasi (NE TE), out · 0.2 pts
  • Anfernee Jennings (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 12% · Texans 88%

Final margin
Patriots by 3
Luck in points
17.2 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 14.2
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 76% · Texans 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2021 games · Patriots · Texans

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