luckadjusted

Week 5 2021 · October 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Chargers, Week 5 2021: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Browns 47–42, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chargers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 5.2 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:53 left): the Chargers converted 3rd & 10, worth 22 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Cleveland Browns 42
Los Angeles Chargers 47

October 10, 2021 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −2.5

Luck index +47 Chargers lucky · −47 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 5, Chargers win 5.

  1. 1 CLE 47 LAC 24
  2. 2 CLE 44 LAC 30
  3. 3 CLE 39 LAC 30
  4. 4 CLE 44 LAC 38
  5. 5 CLE 47 LAC 44
  6. 6 CLE 41 LAC 43
  7. 7 CLE 28 LAC 34
  8. 8 CLE 41 LAC 52
  9. 9 CLE 20 LAC 36
  10. 10 CLE 10 LAC 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 47% of them, Chargers 53%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+12.7%
Browns by 9–1614.2%
Browns by 1–819.3%
Level after regulation4.8%
Chargers by 1–821.6%
Chargers by 9–1614.0%
Chargers by 17+13.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chargers by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chargers by 0.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 9% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:53 The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +22% LAC LAC: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:16 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +14% LAC CLE: Touchdown
3 Q2 7:35 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedFalse Start on the Chargers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +11% CLE LAC: Punt
4 Q2 0:57 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +11% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q4 9:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 33 yardsJudgment calls +17% LAC LAC: Touchdown
6 Q4 7:48 The Chargers converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +15% LAC LAC: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:28 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Donald Parham), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 421 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +11% CLE CLE: Punt
8 Q4 3:15 The Chargers missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +17% CLE LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kenneth Murray (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Justin Jones (LAC DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jarvis Landry (CLE WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (CLE DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jacob Phillips (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 41% · Chargers 59%

Final margin
Chargers by 5
Luck in points
4.2 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Browns 47% · Chargers 53% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2021 games · Browns · Chargers

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