luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2021 · October 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Chargers, Week 5 2021: who deserved to win?

The Chargers beat the Browns 47–42, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Chargers win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Chargers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:15 left): the Chargers missed an extra point, worth 17 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 42
Los Angeles Chargers 47

October 10, 2021 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Chargers −2.5

Luck index +50 Chargers lucky · −50 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 5, Chargers win 5.

  1. 1 CLE 41 LAC 17
  2. 2 CLE 36 LAC 20
  3. 3 CLE 48 LAC 38
  4. 4 CLE 23 LAC 16
  5. 5 CLE 30 LAC 28
  6. 6 CLE 28 LAC 30
  7. 7 CLE 31 LAC 36
  8. 8 CLE 29 LAC 38
  9. 9 CLE 17 LAC 31
  10. 10 CLE 13 LAC 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 50% of them, Chargers 50%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+12.3%
Browns by 9–1614.2%
Browns by 1–821.2%
Level after regulation4.8%
Chargers by 1–820.7%
Chargers by 9–1613.3%
Chargers by 17+13.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.0 points to the Chargers: the final margin was Chargers by 5, without the luck Chargers by 4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. McLaughlin, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 31 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 7 for 77 yards, Chargers 6 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:59 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.2 pts
Q1 3:30 Illegal Contact on the Browns, 5 yards +7% LAC +1.6 pts
Q2 13:32 Defensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Drue Tranquill), 9 yards +5% CLE +1.8 pts
Q2 10:55 Defensive Holding on the Chargers, 5 yards +3% CLE +0.9 pts
Q2 7:35 False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.5 pts
Q3 9:24 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Malik Jackson), 5 yards +1% LAC +0.6 pts
Q3 8:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Ronnie Harrison), 9 yards +5% LAC +1.2 pts
Q3 5:02 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Harrison Bryant), 10 yards +4% LAC +1.1 pts
Q4 14:07 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +4% LAC +1.3 pts
Q4 9:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 33 yards +17% LAC +4.6 pts
Q4 9:02 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Chargers, 5 yards +5% CLE +0.8 pts
Q4 7:24 Face Mask on the Chargers (Derwin James), 15 yards +8% CLE +1.8 pts
Q4 3:28 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Donald Parham), 10 yards +10% CLE +1.7 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Chargers’ chance of winning

As low as 9% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Chargers were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:30 Illegal Contact on the Browns, 5 yardsJudgment calls +7% LAC LAC: Touchdown
2 Q2 11:53 The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +8% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q2 8:16 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +14% LAC CLE: Touchdown
4 Q4 9:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns, 33 yardsJudgment calls +17% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:48 The Chargers converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +15% LAC LAC: Touchdown
6 Q4 7:24 Face Mask on the Chargers (Derwin James), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 548 snaps before, position avg 1 per 530 +8% CLE CLE: Touchdown
7 Q4 3:28 Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Donald Parham), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 421 snaps before, position avg 1 per 269 +10% CLE CLE: Punt
8 Q4 3:15 The Chargers missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +17% CLE LAC: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kenneth Murray (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Jones (LAC DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jarvis Landry (CLE WR), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (CLE DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Jacob Phillips (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 19% · Chargers 81%

Final margin
Chargers by 5
Luck in points
1.0 for the Chargers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chargers by 4.0
Replay with same day's form
Browns 50% · Chargers 50% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2021 games · Browns · Chargers

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