luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Saints, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Saints 37–30, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Saints were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:52 left): M. Crosby made a 49-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 37
New Orleans Saints 30

September 27, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −3.5

Luck index +31 Packers lucky · −31 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 7, Saints win 3.

  1. 1 GB 45 NO 17
  2. 2 GB 48 NO 28
  3. 3 GB 40 NO 24
  4. 4 GB 40 NO 28
  5. 5 GB 30 NO 21
  6. 6 GB 26 NO 21
  7. 7 GB 26 NO 24
  8. 8 GB 20 NO 23
  9. 9 GB 37 NO 45
  10. 10 GB 17 NO 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 69% of them, Saints 31%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+24.2%
Packers by 9–1620.2%
Packers by 1–823.2%
Level after regulation3.5%
Saints by 1–815.4%
Saints by 9–168.5%
Saints by 17+5.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 7, without the luck Packers by 5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 52 yds made · 71% expected
  • M. Crosby, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • W. Lutz, 45 yds made · 83% expected
  • W. Lutz, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Crosby, 49 yds made · 75% expected
  • W. Lutz, 34 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Packers 2 for 10 yards, Saints 8 for 83 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:45 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Saints (Cameron Jordan), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% GB +0.8 pts
Q1 2:34 Horse Collar Tackle on the Saints (Malcolm Jenkins), 15 yards +6% GB +1.4 pts
Q2 12:07 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Saints, 15 yards +5% GB +1.4 pts
Q2 9:55 Offensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Taysom Hill), 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% GB +1.7 pts
Q2 2:02 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Za'Darius Smith), 5 yards +4% NO +0.3 pts
Q3 6:07 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% GB +0.3 pts
Q3 3:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marcus Williams), 19 yards +8% GB +1.3 pts
Q3 2:13 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Kevin King), 5 yards +1% NO +0.3 pts
Q4 3:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Jackrabbit Jenkins), 14 yards +5% GB +1.9 pts
Q4 2:56 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Jackrabbit Jenkins), 0 yards 0% GB +0.2 pts

Packers penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:18 The Packers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% GB GB: Field goal
2 Q2 8:50 The Saints converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +8% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q3 14:50 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q3 3:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marcus Williams), 19 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1199 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +8% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q3 2:26 The Packers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +6% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q4 12:23 The Saints fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% GB NO: Punt
7 Q4 8:52 M. Crosby made a 49-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 5 of 7 from 45+ before +13% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:30 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +6% GB NO: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • David Onyemata (NO DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Davante Adams (GB WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Kenny Clark (GB NT), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 79% · Saints 21%

Final margin
Packers by 7
Luck in points
2.0 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 5.0
Replay with same day's form
Packers 69% · Saints 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · Packers · Saints

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