luckadjusted

Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Saints, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Saints 37–30 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Saints.

Before kickoff the Saints were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 14:50 left): the Packers converted 3rd & 10, worth 22 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 37
New Orleans Saints 30

September 27, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −3.5

Luck index +30 Packers lucky · −30 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 7, Saints win 3.

  1. 1 GB 42 NO 14
  2. 2 GB 36 NO 17
  3. 3 GB 31 NO 16
  4. 4 GB 24 NO 13
  5. 5 GB 37 NO 30
  6. 6 GB 19 NO 15
  7. 7 GB 27 NO 25
  8. 8 GB 35 NO 38
  9. 9 GB 23 NO 30
  10. 10 GB 16 NO 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 70% of them, Saints 30%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+23.0%
Packers by 9–1620.6%
Packers by 1–824.3%
Level after regulation4.1%
Saints by 1–816.5%
Saints by 9–167.2%
Saints by 17+4.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 0.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 52 yds made · 71% expected
  • M. Crosby, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • W. Lutz, 45 yds made · 83% expected
  • W. Lutz, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Crosby, 49 yds made · 76% expected
  • W. Lutz, 34 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 1:18 The Packers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% GB GB: Field goal
2 Q2 8:50 The Saints converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +8% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q2 0:09 The Saints converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +10% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q3 14:50 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +22% GB GB: Touchdown
5 Q3 13:01 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +9% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q3 3:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Marcus Williams), 19 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1199 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +8% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q3 2:26 The Packers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +16% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q4 8:52 M. Crosby made 49-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 5 of 7 from 45+ before +12% GB GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • David Onyemata (NO DT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Davante Adams (GB WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Kenny Clark (GB NT), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 56% · Saints 44%

Final margin
Packers by 7
Luck in points
6.1 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Packers 70% · Saints 30% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · Packers · Saints

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