luckadjusted

Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Steelers, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Texans 28–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:57 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Bradley Roby), 29 yards, worth 18 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Houston Texans 21
Pittsburgh Steelers 28

September 27, 2020 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −4

Luck index +28 Steelers lucky · −28 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 3, Steelers win 7.

  1. 1 HOU 30 PIT 13
  2. 2 HOU 30 PIT 23
  3. 3 HOU 29 PIT 27
  4. 4 HOU 17 PIT 19
  5. 5 HOU 17 PIT 21
  6. 6 HOU 20 PIT 27
  7. 7 HOU 21 PIT 31
  8. 8 HOU 13 PIT 27
  9. 9 HOU 13 PIT 30
  10. 10 HOU 6 PIT 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 28% of them, Steelers 72%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+3.4%
Texans by 9–167.4%
Texans by 1–814.7%
Level after regulation3.9%
Steelers by 1–828.2%
Steelers by 9–1620.6%
Steelers by 17+21.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 2.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Boswell, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:46 The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:07 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +12% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:09 The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +14% PIT PIT: Touchdown
4 Q3 12:26 The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q3 10:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Bradley Roby), 29 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 936 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +18% PIT PIT: Field goal
6 Q3 4:16 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% PIT HOU: Punt
7 Q4 14:57 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +14% HOU HOU: Turnover
8 Q4 13:38 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +10% PIT HOU: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Gareon Conley (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 25% · Steelers 75%

Final margin
Steelers by 7
Luck in points
4.2 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 2.8
Replay with same day's form
Texans 28% · Steelers 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · Texans · Steelers

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