luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 3 2020 · September 27, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Steelers, Week 3 2020: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Texans 28–21, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:57 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Bradley Roby), 29 yards, worth 18 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Houston Texans 21
Pittsburgh Steelers 28

September 27, 2020 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −4

Luck index +29 Steelers lucky · −29 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 3, Steelers win 7.

  1. 1 HOU 23 PIT 7
  2. 2 HOU 23 PIT 16
  3. 3 HOU 23 PIT 21
  4. 4 HOU 7 PIT 10
  5. 5 HOU 20 PIT 25
  6. 6 HOU 9 PIT 17
  7. 7 HOU 10 PIT 20
  8. 8 HOU 10 PIT 24
  9. 9 HOU 10 PIT 28
  10. 10 HOU 3 PIT 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 29% of them, Steelers 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+3.5%
Texans by 9–167.3%
Texans by 1–814.6%
Level after regulation4.2%
Steelers by 1–827.7%
Steelers by 9–1621.4%
Steelers by 17+21.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.2 points to the Steelers: the final margin was Steelers by 7, without the luck Steelers by 4.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • C. Boswell, 26 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 4 for 49 yards, Steelers 2 for 14 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Eric Murray), 10 yards +7% PIT +1.2 pts
Q2 5:15 Intentional Grounding on the Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger), 9 yards +2% HOU +0.8 pts
Q3 10:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Bradley Roby), 29 yards +18% PIT +3.5 pts
Q3 10:52 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Steelers, 5 yards +5% HOU +0.5 pts
Q3 3:27 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.3 pts
Q4 5:37 False Start on the Texans (Jordan Akins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PIT +0.3 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Steelers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:58 The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% PIT PIT: Field goal
2 Q1 11:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Eric Murray), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 572 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +7% PIT PIT: Field goal
3 Q1 6:07 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:09 The Steelers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +12% PIT PIT: Touchdown
5 Q3 12:26 The Steelers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% PIT PIT: Field goal
6 Q3 10:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Bradley Roby), 29 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 936 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +18% PIT PIT: Field goal
7 Q4 14:57 The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +11% HOU HOU: Turnover
8 Q4 12:00 The Steelers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% PIT PIT: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Gareon Conley (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 5% · Steelers 95%

Final margin
Steelers by 7
Luck in points
2.2 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Texans 29% · Steelers 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 3 2020 games · Texans · Steelers

More from Week 3 2020