luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2020 · September 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Washington, Week 1 2020: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Eagles 27–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Washington wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Washington.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:18 left): Defensive Offside on Washington, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 21 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 17
Washington Football Team 27

September 13, 2020 · FedExField · Closing line: Eagles −5.5

Luck index +60 Washington lucky · −60 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 6, Washington wins 4.

  1. 1 PHI 35 WAS 10
  2. 2 PHI 27 WAS 10
  3. 3 PHI 18 WAS 6
  4. 4 PHI 31 WAS 22
  5. 5 PHI 29 WAS 22
  6. 6 PHI 20 WAS 18
  7. 7 PHI 21 WAS 24
  8. 8 PHI 15 WAS 23
  9. 9 PHI 16 WAS 30
  10. 10 PHI 10 WAS 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 60% of them, Washington 40%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+16.8%
Eagles by 9–1617.3%
Eagles by 1–823.1%
Level after regulation2.7%
Washington by 1–818.7%
Washington by 9–1612.8%
Washington by 17+8.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to Washington: the final margin was Washington by 10, without the luck Washington by 7.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 48 yds missed · 74% expected
  • J. Elliott, 53 yds missed · 65% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 40 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 3 for 20 yards, Washington 7 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:05 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington (Chase Young), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +1.0 pts
Q1 8:11 Neutral Zone Infraction on Washington (Montez Sweat), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PHI +0.8 pts
Q1 7:09 Unnecessary Roughness on Washington (Landon Collins), 15 yards +5% PHI +1.8 pts
Q2 12:19 Defensive Holding on the Eagles (Jalen Mills), 5 yards +1% WAS +0.6 pts
Q2 9:21 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on Washington (Troy Apke), 15 yards +2% PHI +1.8 pts
Q3 4:19 Illegal Touch Kick on Washington, 5 yards 0% PHI +0.1 pts
Q3 4:08 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Eagles (Davion Taylor), 10 yards +4% WAS +0.9 pts
Q3 3:18 Defensive Offside on Washington, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +21% PHI +4.5 pts
Q4 2:17 Defensive Offside on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +2.8 pts
Q4 0:31 Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.1 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 9:29 D. Hopkins missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before +8% PHI WAS: Punt
2 Q3 5:41 J. Elliott missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 4 of 8 from 45+ before +11% WAS PHI: Turnover on downs
3 Q3 3:18 Defensive Offside on Washington, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +21% PHI PHI: Turnover on downs
4 Q3 1:18 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +9% WAS PHI: Punt
5 Q4 11:21 Washington converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:56 Washington converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q4 7:26 Washington converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
8 Q4 4:35 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +7% WAS PHI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alshon Jeffery (PHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Miles Sanders (PHI RB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 10% · Washington 90%

Final margin
Washington by 10
Luck in points
2.6 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 7.4
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 60% · Washington 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2020 games · Eagles · Washington

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