luckadjusted

Week 1 2020 · September 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Washington, Week 1 2020: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Eagles 27–17, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, Washington win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to Washington.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:18 left): Defensive Offside on Washington, 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 21 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 17
Washington Football Team 27

September 13, 2020 · FedExField · Closing line: Eagles −5.5

Luck index +58 Washington lucky · −58 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 6, Washington win 4.

  1. 1 PHI 41 WAS 13
  2. 2 PHI 44 WAS 27
  3. 3 PHI 32 WAS 20
  4. 4 PHI 24 WAS 15
  5. 5 PHI 30 WAS 24
  6. 6 PHI 17 WAS 15
  7. 7 PHI 23 WAS 26
  8. 8 PHI 17 WAS 24
  9. 9 PHI 16 WAS 27
  10. 10 PHI 10 WAS 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 58% of them, Washington 42%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+17.0%
Eagles by 9–1616.7%
Eagles by 1–823.3%
Level after regulation2.2%
Washington by 1–818.5%
Washington by 9–1613.6%
Washington by 17+8.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Washington by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Washington by 9.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 48 yds missed · 75% expected
  • J. Elliott, 53 yds missed · 65% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 40 yds made · 87% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:05 The Eagles converted 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 16% expected +11% PHI PHI: Field goal
2 Q2 9:29 D. Hopkins missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before +8% PHI WAS: Punt
3 Q3 6:29 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% WAS PHI: Missed field goal
4 Q3 5:41 J. Elliott missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 4 of 8 from 45+ before +11% WAS PHI: Turnover on downs
5 Q3 3:18 Defensive Offside on Washington, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +21% PHI PHI: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 1:18 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +11% WAS PHI: Punt
7 Q4 11:21 Washington converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +12% WAS WAS: Touchdown
8 Q4 7:26 Washington converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +7% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Alshon Jeffery (PHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Derek Barnett (PHI DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Miles Sanders (PHI RB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 5% · Washington 95%

Final margin
Washington by 10
Luck in points
0.9 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 9.1
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 58% · Washington 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2020 games · Eagles · Washington

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