luckadjusted

Week 1 2020 · September 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Jaguars, Week 1 2020: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Colts 27–20, but the Colts played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 5.3 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Colts were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 13:18 left): Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (D.J. Hayden), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 31 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 20
Jacksonville Jaguars 27

September 13, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Colts −7

Luck index +69 Jaguars very lucky · −69 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 7, Jaguars win 3.

  1. 1 IND 41 JAX 16
  2. 2 IND 31 JAX 13
  3. 3 IND 29 JAX 16
  4. 4 IND 27 JAX 17
  5. 5 IND 24 JAX 17
  6. 6 IND 20 JAX 16
  7. 7 IND 18 JAX 16
  8. 8 IND 24 JAX 26
  9. 9 IND 23 JAX 31
  10. 10 IND 14 JAX 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 69% of them, Jaguars 31%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+17.1%
Colts by 9–1621.7%
Colts by 1–827.9%
Level after regulation2.6%
Jaguars by 1–818.4%
Jaguars by 9–168.8%
Jaguars by 17+3.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 6.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Blankenship, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 30 yds missed · 97% expected
  • J. Lambo, 50 yds made · 75% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Lambo, 46 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 24% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 3:15 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +11% JAX IND: Turnover
2 Q2 13:00 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +13% JAX IND: Touchdown
3 Q3 11:29 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +11% IND IND: Missed field goal
4 Q3 4:15 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +11% IND JAX: Field goal
5 Q4 13:18 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (D.J. Hayden), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 651 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 +31% IND IND: Field goal
6 Q4 6:26 Horse Collar Tackle on the Colts, 15 yardsJudgment calls +11% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:32 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +12% JAX IND: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 0:49 The Colts were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +10% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dede Westbrook (JAX WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Quincy Williams (JAX LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 29% · Jaguars 71%

Final margin
Jaguars by 7
Luck in points
0.7 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Colts 69% · Jaguars 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2020 games · Colts · Jaguars

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