luckadjusted

Week 1 2020 · September 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Vikings, Week 1 2020: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Vikings 43–34, but the Vikings played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:16 left): the Packers were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 14 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Green Bay Packers 43
Minnesota Vikings 34

September 13, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −1

Luck index +69 Packers very lucky · −69 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 3, Vikings win 7.

  1. 1 GB 34 MIN 20
  2. 2 GB 30 MIN 23
  3. 3 GB 37 MIN 34
  4. 4 GB 42 MIN 44
  5. 5 GB 10 MIN 14
  6. 6 GB 26 MIN 34
  7. 7 GB 23 MIN 34
  8. 8 GB 24 MIN 40
  9. 9 GB 28 MIN 48
  10. 10 GB 16 MIN 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 31% of them, Vikings 69%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+4.2%
Packers by 9–167.7%
Packers by 1–816.3%
Level after regulation3.4%
Vikings by 1–825.1%
Vikings by 9–1620.5%
Vikings by 17+22.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 9. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 15.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • M. Crosby, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • D. Bailey, 35 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:35 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Ifeadi Odenigbo), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 429 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +5% GB GB: Field goal
2 Q1 1:52 The Packers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% GB GB: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 12:21 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +12% MIN GB: Field goal
4 Q2 8:16 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Packers (Aaron Rodgers), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1184 snaps before, position avg 1 per 669 +14% MIN GB: Field goal
5 Q2 4:39 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings (Jalyn Holmes), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 99 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +7% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q2 2:56 The Packers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:21 The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q3 3:31 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% GB GB: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Billy Turner (GB G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 100% · Vikings 0%

Final margin
Packers by 9
Luck in points
6.1 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 15.1
Replay with same day's form
Packers 31% · Vikings 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2020 games · Packers · Vikings

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