luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2020 NFL season · September 10, 2020–September 14

Week 1 2020: who deserved to win

7 of 16 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Bears beat the Lions 27–23 in a game they win 24% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 1 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 0 of 6 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Jaguars 27–20 vs Colts 30% 34% Lucky
Cardinals 24–20 @ 49ers 30% 23% Lucky
Washington 27–17 vs Eagles 34% 40% Coin flip
Bears 27–23 @ Lions 43% 24% Lucky
Packers 43–34 @ Vikings 47% 30% Lucky
Seahawks 38–25 @ Falcons 47% 33% Lucky

Week 1 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Cardinals W 24–20 @ 49ers 23% +77
2 Bears W 27–23 @ Lions 24% +76
3 Steelers W 26–16 @ Giants 29% +71
4 Packers W 43–34 @ Vikings 30% +70
5 Seahawks W 38–25 @ Falcons 33% +67
6 Jaguars W 27–20 vs Colts 34% +66
7 Saints W 34–23 vs Buccaneers 40% +60
8 Washington W 27–17 vs Eagles 40% +60
9 Rams W 20–17 vs Cowboys 54% +46
10 Chiefs W 34–20 vs Texans 68% +32
11 Bills W 27–17 vs Jets 81% +19
12 Patriots W 21–11 vs Dolphins 83% +17
13 Raiders W 34–30 @ Panthers 86% +14
14 Chargers W 16–13 @ Bengals 91% +10
15 Titans W 16–14 @ Broncos 91% +9
16 Ravens W 38–6 vs Browns 94% +6
17 Browns L 6–38 @ Ravens 6% −6
18 Broncos L 14–16 vs Titans 9% −9
19 Bengals L 13–16 vs Chargers 10% −10
20 Panthers L 30–34 vs Raiders 14% −14
21 Dolphins L 11–21 @ Patriots 17% −17
22 Jets L 17–27 @ Bills 19% −19
23 Texans L 20–34 @ Chiefs 32% −32
24 Cowboys L 17–20 @ Rams 46% −46
25 Eagles L 17–27 @ Washington 60% −60
26 Buccaneers L 23–34 @ Saints 60% −60
27 Colts L 20–27 @ Jaguars 66% −66
28 Falcons L 25–38 vs Seahawks 67% −67
29 Vikings L 34–43 vs Packers 70% −70
30 Giants L 16–26 vs Steelers 71% −71
31 Lions L 23–27 vs Bears 76% −76
32 49ers L 20–24 vs Cardinals 77% −77