luckadjusted

Week 1 2020 · September 14, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Giants, Week 1 2020: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Giants 26–16, but the Giants played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Steelers.

The Steelers won on an off day: they played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 27%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Steelers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:46 left): the Steelers converted 3rd & 9, worth 12 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 26
New York Giants 16

September 14, 2020 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Steelers −6

Luck index +73 Steelers very lucky · −73 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 3, Giants win 7.

  1. 1 PIT 27 NYG 10
  2. 2 PIT 16 NYG 9
  3. 3 PIT 26 NYG 23
  4. 4 PIT 28 NYG 29
  5. 5 PIT 9 NYG 13
  6. 6 PIT 21 NYG 28
  7. 7 PIT 7 NYG 17
  8. 8 PIT 3 NYG 17
  9. 9 PIT 6 NYG 24
  10. 10 PIT 7 NYG 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Steelers won on an off day

They played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against the Giants they would win 72% of the time; with this day’s form, 27%.

45 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Steelers offenseEPA per play gained +0.18 +0.04 better by 0.14
Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.05 +0.06 better by 0.11
Giants offenseEPA per play gained −0.05 +0.09 worse by 0.15
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.18 +0.13 worse by 0.05

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 27% of them, Giants 73%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+2.9%
Steelers by 9–167.4%
Steelers by 1–814.0%
Level after regulation4.1%
Giants by 1–826.8%
Giants by 9–1621.4%
Giants by 17+23.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 8.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. Boswell, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • C. Boswell, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:55 The Giants converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +7% NYG NYG: Punt
2 Q1 11:40 The Steelers fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NYG PIT: Punt
3 Q1 4:46 The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +12% PIT PIT: Field goal
4 Q2 13:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers (Joe Haden), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1116 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +9% NYG NYG: Touchdown
5 Q2 9:07 The Steelers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% PIT PIT: Touchdown
6 Q2 7:22 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Evan Engram), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 445 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +10% PIT PIT: Punt
7 Q3 11:29 The Giants converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +7% NYG NYG: Turnover
8 Q3 6:02 The Giants converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +8% NYG NYG: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Golden Tate (NYG WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • David Mayo (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • David DeCastro (PIT G), out · 0.7 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 94% · Giants 6%

Final margin
Steelers by 10
Luck in points
1.1 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 8.9
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 27% · Giants 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2020 games · Steelers · Giants

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