Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Raiders at Chargers, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?
The Raiders beat the Chargers 31–26, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Raiders.
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:01 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 22 points of win probability to the Raiders.
Final
 Las Vegas Raiders | 31 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +48 Raiders lucky · −48 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Raiders win 5, Chargers win 5.
- 1 LV 47 LAC 23
- 2 LV 34 LAC 20
- 3 LV 44 LAC 35
- 4 LV 27 LAC 22
- 5 LV 23 LAC 21
- 6 LV 38 LAC 40
- 7 LV 26 LAC 31
- 8 LV 31 LAC 40
- 9 LV 20 LAC 33
- 10 LV 22 LAC 44
Your call
Did the Raiders earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Raiders win 52% of them, Chargers 48%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Raiders by 17+ | 11.3% |
| Raiders by 9–16 | 14.5% |
| Raiders by 1–8 | 22.4% |
| Level after regulation | 5.8% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 22.6% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 13.8% |
| Chargers by 17+ | 9.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Badgley, 48 yds missed · 74% expected
- M. Badgley, 45 yds made · 79% expected
- M. Badgley, 29 yds made · 96% expected
- D. Carlson, 31 yds made · 95% expected
Penalties: Raiders 2 for 10 yards, Chargers 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:15 | Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Johnathan Hankins), 5 yards | +2% LAC +0.6 pts |
| Q1 11:49 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q1 4:42 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Isaac Rochell), 15 yards | +4% LV +1.4 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Chargers (Jalen Guyton), 10 yards | +3% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:50 | False Start on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% LV +0.9 pts |
| Q4 9:17 | Defensive Holding on the Raiders, 5 yards | +6% LAC +2.1 pts |
| Q4 2:43 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers, 10 yards | +3% LV +0.4 pts |
Raiders penalties, every game · Chargers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Chargers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 66%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:32 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +10% LV | LV: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 1:45 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +8% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q2 0:12 | The Raiders fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% LAC | LV: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 13:26 | The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +10% LV | LV: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 9:04 | The Chargers’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +8% LV | LAC: End of game |
| 6 | Q4 8:20 | The Chargers fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +11% LV | LAC: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 1:25 | The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +9% LAC | LAC: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 0:01 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +22% LV | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Joey Bosa (LAC DE), out · 0.9 pts
- Ryan Groy (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Austin Ekeler (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Kolton Miller (LV T), out · 0.9 pts
- Damon Arnette (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Richie Incognito (LV G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Raiders 67% · Chargers 33%
- Final margin
- Raiders by 5
- Luck in points
- 2.8 for the Raiders
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Raiders by 2.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Raiders 52% · Chargers 48% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · 
Raiders · 
Chargers
More from Week 9 2020
- Packers at 49ers GB 34–17 · replay 70% for the winner
- Ravens at Colts BAL 24–10 · replay 45% for the winner
- Panthers at Chiefs KC 33–31 · replay 47% for the winner
- Bears at Titans TEN 24–17 · replay 88% for the winner
- Broncos at Falcons ATL 34–27 · replay 60% for the winner
- Lions at Vikings MIN 34–20 · replay 71% for the winner
- Texans at Jaguars HOU 27–25 · replay 63% for the winner
- Giants at Washington NYG 23–20 · replay 34% for the winner
- Seahawks at Bills BUF 44–34 · replay 74% for the winner
- Dolphins at Cardinals MIA 34–31 · replay 32% for the winner
- Steelers at Cowboys PIT 24–19 · replay 78% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers NO 38–3 · replay 69% for the winner
- Patriots at Jets NE 30–27 · replay 60% for the winner