luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Jaguars, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Jaguars 27–25, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Texans were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:30 left): the Jaguars’ two-point try failed, worth 16 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 27
Jacksonville Jaguars 25

November 8, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Texans −7

Luck index +37 Texans lucky · −37 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 6, Jaguars win 4.

  1. 1 HOU 48 JAX 20
  2. 2 HOU 34 JAX 16
  3. 3 HOU 30 JAX 17
  4. 4 HOU 27 JAX 17
  5. 5 HOU 24 JAX 19
  6. 6 HOU 33 JAX 30
  7. 7 HOU 21 JAX 23
  8. 8 HOU 34 JAX 40
  9. 9 HOU 17 JAX 28
  10. 10 HOU 10 JAX 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 63% of them, Jaguars 37%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+19.7%
Texans by 9–1618.8%
Texans by 1–822.8%
Level after regulation2.9%
Jaguars by 1–818.8%
Jaguars by 9–1610.3%
Jaguars by 17+6.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.6 points to the Texans: the final margin was Texans by 2, without the luck Texans by 1.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 54 yds made · 58% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Lambo, 59 yds made · 58% expected
  • J. Lambo, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Texans 3 for 18 yards, Jaguars 4 for 78 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 14:25 Unnecessary Roughness on the Jaguars (Joe Schobert), 13 yards +3% HOU +1.6 pts
Q2 2:11 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Myles Jack), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% HOU +0.1 pts
Q2 1:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (C.J. Henderson), 50 yards +13% HOU +2.7 pts
Q3 14:21 False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.4 pts
Q3 11:03 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Jaguars (Keelan Cole), 10 yards +4% HOU +0.8 pts
Q4 10:10 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans, 8 yards +4% JAX +1.7 pts
Q4 3:04 Delay of Game on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.2 pts

Texans penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:19 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (C.J. Henderson), 50 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 346 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +13% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:03 J. Lambo made a 59-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 8 of 9 from 45+ before +10% JAX JAX: Turnover
4 Q3 13:26 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% JAX HOU: Punt
5 Q3 6:16 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% HOU HOU: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:41 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +6% HOU JAX: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 8:02 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +6% HOU JAX: Punt
8 Q4 1:30 The Jaguars’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +16% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • D.J. Hayden (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Wingard (JAX DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Wingard (JAX S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • D.J. Hayden (JAX DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Bradley Roby (HOU CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Whitney Mercilus (HOU OLB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Benardrick McKinney (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Benardrick McKinney (HOU ILB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Max Scharping (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bradley Roby (HOU DB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Whitney Mercilus (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 48% · Jaguars 52%

Final margin
Texans by 2
Luck in points
0.6 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Texans 63% · Jaguars 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · Texans · Jaguars

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