luckadjusted

Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Texans at Jaguars, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Jaguars 27–25, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Texans win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 4.0 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:16 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 6, worth 21 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Houston Texans 27
Jacksonville Jaguars 25

November 8, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Texans −7

Luck index +40 Texans lucky · −40 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Texans win 6, Jaguars win 4.

  1. 1 HOU 42 JAX 13
  2. 2 HOU 37 JAX 19
  3. 3 HOU 41 JAX 27
  4. 4 HOU 19 JAX 10
  5. 5 HOU 31 JAX 26
  6. 6 HOU 36 JAX 34
  7. 7 HOU 20 JAX 23
  8. 8 HOU 24 JAX 30
  9. 9 HOU 26 JAX 37
  10. 10 HOU 24 JAX 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Texans win 60% of them, Jaguars 40%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Texans by 17+16.6%
Texans by 9–1616.1%
Texans by 1–825.0%
Level after regulation2.9%
Jaguars by 1–818.9%
Jaguars by 9–1612.2%
Jaguars by 17+8.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 1.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Fairbairn, 54 yds made · 57% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • J. Lambo, 59 yds made · 55% expected
  • J. Lambo, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Texans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:19 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +20% JAX JAX: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:30 Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (C.J. Henderson), 50 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 346 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +13% HOU HOU: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:03 J. Lambo made 59-yard field goalKicks · 55% expected for him, 8 of 9 from 45+ before +11% JAX JAX: Turnover
4 Q3 13:26 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +6% JAX HOU: Punt
5 Q3 9:25 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +7% JAX JAX: Turnover
6 Q3 7:32 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% HOU JAX: Field goal
7 Q3 6:16 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +20% HOU HOU: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:30 The Jaguars’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +16% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • D.J. Hayden (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Wingard (JAX DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Andrew Wingard (JAX S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • D.J. Hayden (JAX DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Bradley Roby (HOU CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Whitney Mercilus (HOU OLB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Benardrick McKinney (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Benardrick McKinney (HOU ILB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Max Scharping (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Bradley Roby (HOU DB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Whitney Mercilus (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Texans 29% · Jaguars 71%

Final margin
Texans by 2
Luck in points
3.2 for the Texans
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Texans 60% · Jaguars 40% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · Texans · Jaguars

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