luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Bills, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Seahawks 44–34, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 59% favorites.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 34
Buffalo Bills 44

November 8, 2020 · New Era Field · Closing line: Seahawks −3

Luck index +26 Bills lucky · −26 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 3, Bills win 7.

  1. 1 SEA 41 BUF 23
  2. 2 SEA 36 BUF 28
  3. 3 SEA 20 BUF 17
  4. 4 SEA 24 BUF 26
  5. 5 SEA 34 BUF 40
  6. 6 SEA 24 BUF 34
  7. 7 SEA 24 BUF 38
  8. 8 SEA 20 BUF 37
  9. 9 SEA 20 BUF 41
  10. 10 SEA 27 BUF 56

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 26% of them, Bills 74%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+3.6%
Seahawks by 9–166.6%
Seahawks by 1–813.0%
Level after regulation2.8%
Bills by 1–824.7%
Bills by 9–1618.5%
Bills by 17+30.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.4 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Bills by 10, without the luck Bills by 10.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • J. Myers, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • T. Bass, 61 yds missed · 53% expected
  • T. Bass, 22 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Myers, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • T. Bass, 31 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Seahawks 4 for 13 yards, Bills 6 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:04 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SEA +0.8 pts
Q1 9:11 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +2% SEA +1.0 pts
Q1 7:56 Horse Collar Tackle on the Seahawks (L.J. Collier), 2 yards +1% BUF +0.6 pts
Q2 9:52 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 25 yards +2% SEA +2.2 pts
Q3 14:00 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Cole Beasley), 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% SEA +1.6 pts
Q3 3:44 Roughing the Passer on the Bills (Jerry Hughes), 15 yards +3% SEA +1.0 pts
Q4 14:14 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% SEA +0.3 pts
Q4 13:38 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Jamal Adams), 5 yards +5% BUF +1.6 pts
Q4 11:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks, 1 yard +1% BUF +0.1 pts
Q4 1:40 Encroachment on the Seahawks (Jonathan Bullard), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SEA +0.5 pts

Seahawks penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:03 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +3% BUF SEA: Punt
2 Q1 11:34 The Bills converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +3% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:22 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +4% BUF SEA: Turnover
4 Q2 6:45 The Seahawks converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +4% SEA SEA: Touchdown
5 Q3 5:14 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% SEA BUF: Punt
6 Q3 2:08 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% BUF SEA: Field goal
7 Q4 13:38 Illegal Contact on the Seahawks (Jamal Adams), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1213 snaps before, position avg 1 per 437 +5% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q4 12:21 The Bills converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +4% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Mitch Morse (BUF C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Josh Norman (BUF DB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Shaquill Griffin (SEA CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Mike Iupati (SEA G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Benson Mayowa (SEA DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Carson (SEA RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Bruce Irvin (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 3% · Bills 97%

Final margin
Bills by 10
Luck in points
0.4 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 10.4
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 26% · Bills 74% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · Seahawks · Bills

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