luckadjusted

Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Falcons, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Broncos 34–27, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Falcons win 6 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 3.3 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:33 left): the Falcons converted 3rd & 11, worth 15 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Denver Broncos 27
Atlanta Falcons 34

November 8, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −4.5

Luck index +45 Falcons lucky · −45 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 4, Falcons win 6.

  1. 1 DEN 41 ATL 20
  2. 2 DEN 32 ATL 20
  3. 3 DEN 34 ATL 27
  4. 4 DEN 19 ATL 17
  5. 5 DEN 31 ATL 33
  6. 6 DEN 41 ATL 47
  7. 7 DEN 23 ATL 31
  8. 8 DEN 20 ATL 33
  9. 9 DEN 16 ATL 34
  10. 10 DEN 14 ATL 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 45% of them, Falcons 55%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+10.3%
Broncos by 9–1614.1%
Broncos by 1–820.1%
Level after regulation5.2%
Falcons by 1–821.4%
Falcons by 9–1614.9%
Falcons by 17+13.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 1.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 52 yds made · 73% expected
  • B. McManus, 43 yds made · 86% expected
  • Y. Koo, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • B. McManus, 41 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:12 The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% ATL ATL: Field goal
2 Q1 10:00 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% DEN ATL: Field goal
3 Q1 9:56 Y. Koo made 52-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 10 of 11 from 45+ before +5% ATL ATL: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:53 The Falcons converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +3% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:33 The Falcons converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +15% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:37 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +2% ATL DEN: Field goal
7 Q2 13:32 B. McManus made 43-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +4% DEN DEN: Punt
8 Q2 9:23 The Falcons converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% ATL ATL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Calvin Ridley (ATL WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Dante Fowler (ATL DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Damontae Kazee (ATL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jurrell Casey (DEN DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Bryce Callahan (DEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Courtland Sutton (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Graham Glasgow (DEN C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Graham Glasgow (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shelby Harris (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • A.J. Bouye (DEN DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mike Purcell (DEN DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mike Purcell (DEN NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 16% · Falcons 84%

Final margin
Falcons by 7
Luck in points
5.1 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 45% · Falcons 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · Broncos · Falcons

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