luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Falcons, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Broncos 34–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 63% favorites.

Final

Denver Broncos 27
Atlanta Falcons 34

November 8, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −4.5

Luck index +40 Falcons lucky · −40 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 4, Falcons win 6.

  1. 1 DEN 33 ATL 10
  2. 2 DEN 30 ATL 17
  3. 3 DEN 26 ATL 19
  4. 4 DEN 37 ATL 34
  5. 5 DEN 27 ATL 28
  6. 6 DEN 21 ATL 25
  7. 7 DEN 22 ATL 30
  8. 8 DEN 13 ATL 26
  9. 9 DEN 16 ATL 33
  10. 10 DEN 18 ATL 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 40% of them, Falcons 60%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+8.3%
Broncos by 9–1611.2%
Broncos by 1–817.6%
Level after regulation2.5%
Falcons by 1–823.8%
Falcons by 9–1618.0%
Falcons by 17+18.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Falcons by 7, without the luck Falcons by 3.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 52 yds made · 73% expected
  • B. McManus, 43 yds made · 87% expected
  • Y. Koo, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • B. McManus, 41 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 5 for 65 yards, Falcons 5 for 61 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:26 False Start on the Falcons (Russell Gage), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +0.4 pts
Q2 4:29 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Davontae Harris), 14 yards +1% ATL +1.9 pts
Q3 13:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Kendall Sheffield), 22 yards +2% DEN +2.1 pts
Q3 8:48 Roughing the Passer on the Broncos (Bradley Chubb), 15 yards +1% ATL +1.3 pts
Q3 7:51 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos (Kareem Jackson), 15 yards +1% ATL +1.3 pts
Q3 6:20 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +1% ATL +0.9 pts
Q3 5:13 Intentional Grounding on the Broncos (Drew Lock), 11 yards 0% ATL +1.0 pts
Q4 4:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons (Darqueze Dennard), 14 yards 0% DEN +0.8 pts
Q4 3:31 Delay of Game on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.3 pts
Q4 2:52 Unnecessary Roughness on the Falcons (Keanu Neal), 15 yards +1% DEN +1.4 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Falcons penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:12 The Falcons converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% ATL ATL: Field goal
2 Q1 10:00 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% DEN ATL: Field goal
3 Q1 9:56 Y. Koo made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 10 of 11 from 45+ before +5% ATL ATL: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:53 The Falcons converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +3% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q1 1:33 The Falcons converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:37 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +2% ATL DEN: Field goal
7 Q2 13:32 B. McManus made a 43-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him +4% DEN DEN: Punt
8 Q2 9:23 The Falcons converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +3% ATL ATL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Calvin Ridley (ATL WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Dante Fowler (ATL DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Damontae Kazee (ATL S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jurrell Casey (DEN DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Bryce Callahan (DEN CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Courtland Sutton (DEN WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Graham Glasgow (DEN C), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Graham Glasgow (DEN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Shelby Harris (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • A.J. Bouye (DEN DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Mike Purcell (DEN DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mike Purcell (DEN NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 7% · Falcons 93%

Final margin
Falcons by 7
Luck in points
3.1 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 3.9
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 40% · Falcons 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · Broncos · Falcons

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