luckadjusted

Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Titans, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Bears 24–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.2 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Titans were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:53 left): Return touchdown by the Titans, worth 31 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Chicago Bears 17
Tennessee Titans 24

November 8, 2020 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −6.5

Luck index +13 Titans about even · −13 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 1, Titans win 9.

  1. 1 CHI 12 TEN 6
  2. 2 CHI 27 TEN 29
  3. 3 CHI 22 TEN 26
  4. 4 CHI 17 TEN 24
  5. 5 CHI 13 TEN 23
  6. 6 CHI 12 TEN 25
  7. 7 CHI 13 TEN 29
  8. 8 CHI 10 TEN 30
  9. 9 CHI 3 TEN 27
  10. 10 CHI 10 TEN 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 13% of them, Titans 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+0.9%
Bears by 9–163.1%
Bears by 1–87.4%
Level after regulation1.4%
Titans by 1–817.8%
Titans by 9–1622.1%
Titans by 17+47.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 4.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Gostkowski, 40 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. Santos, 22 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:15 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% TEN CHI: Punt
2 Q1 4:31 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% CHI TEN: Field goal
3 Q2 15:00 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% CHI TEN: Punt
4 Q2 13:23 The Bears converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% CHI CHI: Punt
5 Q2 6:47 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown
6 Q2 4:47 The Titans converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +9% TEN TEN: Touchdown
7 Q3 6:33 The Bears converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +9% CHI CHI: Opp touchdown
8 Q3 4:53 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Bears fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the TitansSpecial teams +31% TEN CHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (TEN DE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Adam Humphries (TEN WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brett Kern (TEN P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Mitchell Trubisky (CHI QB), out, replaced by n.foles · 1.4 pts
  • Cody Whitehair (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Bobby Massie (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • James Daniels (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sam Mustipher (CHI OL), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 18% · Titans 82%

Final margin
Titans by 7
Luck in points
2.7 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 4.3
Replay with same day's form
Bears 13% · Titans 87% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · Bears · Titans

More from Week 9 2020