luckadjusted

Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Cardinals, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Cardinals 34–31, but the Cardinals played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 5.8 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:48 left): Return touchdown by the Dolphins, worth 61 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 34
Arizona Cardinals 31

November 8, 2020 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −6

Luck index +69 Dolphins very lucky · −69 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 3, Cardinals win 7.

  1. 1 MIA 36 ARI 21
  2. 2 MIA 31 ARI 24
  3. 3 MIA 23 ARI 20
  4. 4 MIA 24 ARI 26
  5. 5 MIA 37 ARI 41
  6. 6 MIA 10 ARI 17
  7. 7 MIA 23 ARI 34
  8. 8 MIA 9 ARI 24
  9. 9 MIA 19 ARI 38
  10. 10 MIA 6 ARI 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 31% of them, Cardinals 69%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+3.5%
Dolphins by 9–168.6%
Dolphins by 1–819.1%
Level after regulation2.4%
Cardinals by 1–827.4%
Cardinals by 9–1621.9%
Cardinals by 17+17.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 8.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Sanders, 56 yds made · 65% expected
  • J. Sanders, 50 yds made · 75% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 49 yds missed · 76% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:48 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedThe Cardinals fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +61% MIA ARI: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:17 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% MIA ARI: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:31 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +19% ARI ARI: Touchdown
4 Q3 5:22 The Cardinals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +15% ARI ARI: Touchdown
5 Q4 7:43 The Cardinals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +11% ARI ARI: Turnover on downs
6 Q4 3:35 J. Sanders made 50-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 15 of 21 from 45+ before +13% MIA MIA: End of game
7 Q4 2:00 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +10% MIA ARI: Missed field goal
8 Q4 1:58 Z. Gonzalez missed 49-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 11 of 15 from 45+ before +29% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Byron Murphy (ARI CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Byron Murphy (ARI DB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Chandler Jones (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • J.R. Sweezy (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Dre Kirkpatrick (ARI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kenyan Drake (ARI RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Devon Kennard (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Davon Godchaux (MIA DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Myles Gaskin (MIA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 18% · Cardinals 82%

Final margin
Dolphins by 3
Luck in points
11.8 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 8.8
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 31% · Cardinals 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · Dolphins · Cardinals

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