luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 9 2020 · November 8, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Dolphins at Cardinals, Week 9 2020: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Cardinals 34–31, but the replays lean toward the Cardinals: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 45 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:48 left): Return touchdown by the Dolphins, worth 37 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 34
Arizona Cardinals 31

November 8, 2020 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −6

Luck index +68 Dolphins very lucky · −68 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 3, Cardinals win 7.

  1. 1 MIA 33 ARI 18
  2. 2 MIA 37 ARI 30
  3. 3 MIA 34 ARI 31
  4. 4 MIA 13 ARI 14
  5. 5 MIA 31 ARI 35
  6. 6 MIA 10 ARI 17
  7. 7 MIA 10 ARI 21
  8. 8 MIA 17 ARI 31
  9. 9 MIA 6 ARI 24
  10. 10 MIA 19 ARI 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 32% of them, Cardinals 68%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+3.6%
Dolphins by 9–169.1%
Dolphins by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation2.0%
Cardinals by 1–827.1%
Cardinals by 9–1621.1%
Cardinals by 17+17.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +9.4 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 3, without the luck Cardinals by 6.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Sanders, 56 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Sanders, 50 yds made · 73% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 49 yds missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 7 for 75 yards, Cardinals 7 for 71 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:37 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 20 yards +4% ARI +1.2 pts
Q1 6:14 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Markus Golden), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% MIA +0.3 pts
Q1 5:59 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Cardinals (Leki Fotu), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.7 pts
Q1 4:17 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% MIA +2.6 pts
Q1 4:11 Face Mask on the Cardinals (Leki Fotu), 15 yards, wiping out the play +7% MIA +2.4 pts
Q1 2:07 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ARI +0.8 pts
Q1 0:30 False Start on the Cardinals (DeAndre Hopkins), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.5 pts
Q2 3:36 Intentional Grounding on the Dolphins (Tua Tagovailoa), 11 yards +4% ARI +1.0 pts
Q2 1:50 False Start on the Cardinals, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIA +0.4 pts
Q3 12:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 18 yards +6% ARI +1.3 pts
Q3 11:04 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals, 21 yards +6% MIA +2.3 pts
Q3 4:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 4 yards +3% ARI +1.1 pts
Q3 2:28 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Dolphins, 7 yards +2% ARI +0.6 pts
Q4 13:39 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Cardinals (Budda Baker), 15 yards +3% MIA +1.0 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Cardinals penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 85%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:48 The Cardinals fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +37% MIA ARI: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:17 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% MIA ARI: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:11 Face Mask on the Cardinals (Leki Fotu), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 159 snaps before, position avg 1 per 390 +7% MIA MIA: Touchdown
4 Q2 14:31 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% ARI ARI: Touchdown
5 Q2 10:25 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% MIA MIA: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:35 J. Sanders made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 15 of 21 from 45+ before +14% MIA MIA: End of game
7 Q4 2:00 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +10% MIA ARI: Missed field goal
8 Q4 1:58 Z. Gonzalez missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 11 of 15 from 45+ before +29% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Byron Murphy (ARI CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Byron Murphy (ARI DB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Chandler Jones (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • J.R. Sweezy (ARI OL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Dre Kirkpatrick (ARI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kenyan Drake (ARI RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Devon Kennard (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Davon Godchaux (MIA DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Myles Gaskin (MIA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 19% · Cardinals 81%

Final margin
Dolphins by 3
Luck in points
9.4 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 32% · Cardinals 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 9 2020 games · Dolphins · Cardinals

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