luckadjusted

Week 13 2023 · December 3, 2023

Panthers at Buccaneers, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Panthers 21–18, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: drops alone were worth 3.1 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:21 left): the Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 27 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 18
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

December 3, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −4

Luck index +9 Buccaneers about even · −9 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Buccaneers win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 19 TB 12
  2. 2 CAR 17 TB 19
  3. 3 CAR 27 TB 33
  4. 4 CAR 23 TB 32
  5. 5 CAR 9 TB 20
  6. 6 CAR 3 TB 17
  7. 7 CAR 7 TB 24
  8. 8 CAR 7 TB 27
  9. 9 CAR 3 TB 27
  10. 10 CAR 17 TB 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 9% of them, Buccaneers 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.4%
Panthers by 9–162.5%
Panthers by 1–85.4%
Level after regulation1.2%
Buccaneers by 1–817.2%
Buccaneers by 9–1621.3%
Buccaneers by 17+52.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 4.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:34 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +16% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q2 2:31 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expectedThe Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% CAR TB: Punt
3 Q2 1:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Cade Otton), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1673 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +10% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 0:19 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% TB TB: Punt
5 Q3 9:26 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% CAR TB: Punt
6 Q3 8:01 The Panthers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% CAR CAR: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:21 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedThe Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +27% TB –
8 Q4 2:00 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% TB TB: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Lavonte David (TB LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Devin White (TB LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Vonn Bell (CAR SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Hayden Hurst (CAR TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 25% · Buccaneers 75%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 3
Luck in points
1.5 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 4.5
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 9% · Buccaneers 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Panthers · Buccaneers

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