luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2023 · December 3, 2023

Panthers at Buccaneers, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Panthers 21–18, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:21 left): the Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 13 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Carolina Panthers 18
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

December 3, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −4

Luck index +9 Buccaneers about even · −9 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 1, Buccaneers win 9.

  1. 1 CAR 12 TB 6
  2. 2 CAR 17 TB 19
  3. 3 CAR 9 TB 13
  4. 4 CAR 13 TB 22
  5. 5 CAR 16 TB 27
  6. 6 CAR 16 TB 30
  7. 7 CAR 13 TB 30
  8. 8 CAR 10 TB 30
  9. 9 CAR 7 TB 30
  10. 10 CAR 7 TB 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 9% of them, Buccaneers 91%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.6%
Panthers by 9–161.7%
Panthers by 1–86.2%
Level after regulation1.0%
Buccaneers by 1–815.4%
Buccaneers by 9–1621.3%
Buccaneers by 17+53.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.2 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 3, without the luck Buccaneers by 4.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Panthers 7 for 62 yards, Buccaneers 5 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:48 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Rachaad White), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% CAR +2.1 pts
Q1 6:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Xavier Woods), 2 yards +2% TB +0.5 pts
Q1 6:08 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +1% TB +0.9 pts
Q1 0:10 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 10 yards +3% CAR +1.0 pts
Q2 2:22 Intentional Grounding on the Panthers (Bryce Young), 15 yards +5% TB +1.4 pts
Q2 1:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Cade Otton), 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% CAR +1.8 pts
Q2 1:05 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CAR +0.1 pts
Q2 0:19 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +9% TB +1.7 pts
Q3 12:30 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TB +0.7 pts
Q3 4:54 Disqualification on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 15 yards +6% TB +0.9 pts
Q4 14:16 Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers (Yetur Gross-Matos), 5 yards +5% TB +1.4 pts
Q4 5:02 Face Mask on the Buccaneers (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka), 1 yard 0% CAR 0.0 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:34 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +11% TB TB: Touchdown
2 Q2 2:31 The Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +6% CAR TB: Punt
3 Q2 1:13 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Cade Otton), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1673 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +10% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs
4 Q2 0:19 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% TB TB: Punt
5 Q3 8:01 The Panthers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +9% CAR CAR: Touchdown
6 Q3 4:54 Disqualification on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 3925 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +6% TB TB: Punt
7 Q4 3:45 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% CAR TB: Punt
8 Q4 2:21 The Panthers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +13% TB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Lavonte David (TB LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Devin White (TB LB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Vonn Bell (CAR SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Hayden Hurst (CAR TE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 21% · Buccaneers 79%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 3
Luck in points
1.2 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 4.2
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 9% · Buccaneers 91% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Panthers · Buccaneers

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