luckadjusted

Week 13 2023 · December 3, 2023

Dolphins at Commanders, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Commanders 45–15, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 10 of 10. The Commanders had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 2.2 points to the Commanders.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:37 left): the Dolphins converted 3rd & 2, worth 23 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 45
Washington Commanders 15

December 3, 2023 · FedExField · Closing line: Dolphins −8.5

Luck index +4 Dolphins about even · −4 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 10, Commanders win 0.

  1. 1 MIA 34 WAS 0
  2. 2 MIA 32 WAS 6
  3. 3 MIA 35 WAS 13
  4. 4 MIA 30 WAS 13
  5. 5 MIA 28 WAS 13
  6. 6 MIA 23 WAS 10
  7. 7 MIA 32 WAS 21
  8. 8 MIA 26 WAS 17
  9. 9 MIA 20 WAS 14
  10. 10 MIA 16 WAS 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 96% of them, Commanders 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 30.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+61.1%
Dolphins by 9–1621.2%
Dolphins by 1–813.3%
Level after regulation0.5%
Commanders by 1–83.1%
Commanders by 9–160.8%
Commanders by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 30. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 29.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 49 yds made · 73% expected
  • J. Slye, 53 yds missed · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:19 The Commanders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% WAS WAS: Punt
2 Q1 9:37 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +23% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:43 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +4% MIA WAS: Punt
4 Q1 2:22 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +4% MIA WAS: Punt
5 Q1 1:01 The Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +15% MIA WAS: Touchdown
6 Q2 12:43 The Commanders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q2 11:20 The Commanders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +4% WAS WAS: Touchdown
8 Q2 9:22 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% MIA MIA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Saahdiq Charles (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Eli Apple (MIA CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jevon Holland (MIA SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kendall Lamm (MIA T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Robert Jones (MIA G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 100% · Commanders 0%

Final margin
Dolphins by 30
Luck in points
1.0 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 29.0
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 96% · Commanders 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Dolphins · Commanders

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