luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2023 · December 3, 2023

Dolphins at Commanders, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Commanders 45–15, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:01 left): Return touchdown by the Dolphins, worth 15 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Miami Dolphins 45
Washington Commanders 15

December 3, 2023 · FedExField · Closing line: Dolphins −8.5

Luck index +2 Dolphins about even · −2 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 10, Commanders win 0.

  1. 1 MIA 45 WAS 10
  2. 2 MIA 34 WAS 6
  3. 3 MIA 31 WAS 7
  4. 4 MIA 36 WAS 15
  5. 5 MIA 28 WAS 10
  6. 6 MIA 22 WAS 6
  7. 7 MIA 23 WAS 10
  8. 8 MIA 27 WAS 16
  9. 9 MIA 17 WAS 10
  10. 10 MIA 23 WAS 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 98% of them, Commanders 2%. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 30.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+75.1%
Dolphins by 9–1616.7%
Dolphins by 1–86.0%
Level after regulation0.4%
Commanders by 1–81.6%
Commanders by 9–160.1%
Commanders by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.4 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 30, without the luck Dolphins by 28.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • J. Slye, 53 yds missed · 68% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 2 for 15 yards, Commanders 3 for 31 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:08 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Dyami Brown), 10 yards +3% MIA +0.9 pts
Q2 11:18 Defensive Offside on the Dolphins (Justin Bethel), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.5 pts
Q2 2:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 16 yards +1% MIA +1.3 pts
Q3 9:36 Defensive Offside on the Commanders (Christian Holmes), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.4 pts
Q3 3:47 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins (Julian Hill), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% WAS +1.9 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:19 The Commanders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% WAS WAS: Punt
2 Q1 9:37 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +3% MIA MIA: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:14 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +3% MIA MIA: Field goal
4 Q1 2:22 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% MIA WAS: Punt
5 Q1 1:08 Offensive Holding on the Commanders (Dyami Brown), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 942 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +3% MIA MIA: Opp touchdown
6 Q1 1:01 The Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +15% MIA WAS: Touchdown
7 Q2 12:43 The Commanders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +4% WAS WAS: Touchdown
8 Q2 11:20 The Commanders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +3% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Saahdiq Charles (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Eli Apple (MIA CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Jevon Holland (MIA SS), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kendall Lamm (MIA T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jaelan Phillips (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Robert Jones (MIA G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 100% · Commanders 0%

Final margin
Dolphins by 30
Luck in points
1.4 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 28.6
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 98% · Commanders 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Dolphins · Commanders

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