luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 13 2023 · December 3, 2023

Broncos at Texans, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Broncos 22–17, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Texans win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:16 left): the Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was picked, worth 20 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Denver Broncos 17
Houston Texans 22

December 3, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −3.5

Luck index +59 Texans lucky · −59 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 6, Texans win 4.

  1. 1 DEN 46 HOU 20
  2. 2 DEN 30 HOU 13
  3. 3 DEN 33 HOU 20
  4. 4 DEN 29 HOU 21
  5. 5 DEN 22 HOU 17
  6. 6 DEN 31 HOU 28
  7. 7 DEN 23 HOU 26
  8. 8 DEN 19 HOU 27
  9. 9 DEN 17 HOU 30
  10. 10 DEN 16 HOU 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 59% of them, Texans 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+17.5%
Broncos by 9–1615.4%
Broncos by 1–824.1%
Level after regulation3.1%
Texans by 1–817.3%
Texans by 9–1613.2%
Texans by 17+9.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Texans by 5, without the luck Texans by 6.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Ammendola, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • W. Lutz, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 38 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 2 for 8 yards, Texans 8 for 81 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:05 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Baron Browning), 4 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +0.2 pts
Q1 3:56 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 4 yards +7% HOU +3.0 pts
Q2 15:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Texans, 10 yards +2% DEN +1.3 pts
Q2 8:38 Tripping on the Texans, 15 yards, wiping out the play +3% HOU +0.6 pts
Q2 7:14 Illegal Formation on the Texans (Henry To'oTo'o), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% DEN +1.1 pts
Q2 7:02 Face Mask on the Texans, 15 yards +1% DEN +0.8 pts
Q3 10:58 Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% DEN +1.1 pts
Q3 6:07 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Texans (Kurt Hinish), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEN +0.5 pts
Q4 14:16 Unnecessary Roughness on the Texans (Jimmie Ward), 15 yards +2% DEN +1.6 pts
Q4 3:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Christian Harris), 11 yards +8% DEN +1.5 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:00 The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:03 N. Collins dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 92 catchable balls before this +6% DEN HOU: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:56 Unnecessary Roughness on the Broncos, 4 yardsJudgment calls +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q4 3:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Christian Harris), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1163 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +8% DEN DEN: Turnover
5 Q4 2:00 The Broncos converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +12% DEN DEN: Turnover
6 Q4 0:35 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +7% HOU DEN: Turnover
7 Q4 0:30 The Broncos converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +17% DEN DEN: Turnover
8 Q4 0:16 The Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +20% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Dalton Schultz (HOU TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jarrett Patterson (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kareem Jackson (DEN SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 13% · Texans 87%

Final margin
Texans by 5
Luck in points
1.8 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 6.8
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 59% · Texans 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Broncos · Texans

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