luckadjusted

Week 13 2023 · December 3, 2023

Broncos at Texans, Week 13 2023: who deserved to win?

The Texans beat the Broncos 22–17, but the Broncos played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff the Texans were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:16 left): the Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 52 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Denver Broncos 17
Houston Texans 22

December 3, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Texans −3.5

Luck index +61 Texans very lucky · −61 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 6, Texans win 4.

  1. 1 DEN 36 HOU 10
  2. 2 DEN 30 HOU 13
  3. 3 DEN 22 HOU 9
  4. 4 DEN 21 HOU 12
  5. 5 DEN 16 HOU 10
  6. 6 DEN 26 HOU 23
  7. 7 DEN 17 HOU 19
  8. 8 DEN 27 HOU 34
  9. 9 DEN 19 HOU 31
  10. 10 DEN 16 HOU 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 61% of them, Texans 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+16.9%
Broncos by 9–1617.3%
Broncos by 1–823.8%
Level after regulation2.7%
Texans by 1–818.4%
Texans by 9–1612.2%
Texans by 17+8.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Texans by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 8.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Ammendola, 29 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • W. Lutz, 34 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 38 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:00 The Texans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +7% HOU HOU: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:03 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 50% expectedN. Collins dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 92 catchable balls before this +8% DEN HOU: Touchdown
3 Q1 0:26 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q4 3:05 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Christian Harris), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1163 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +8% DEN DEN: Turnover
5 Q4 2:00 The Broncos converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +12% DEN DEN: Turnover
6 Q4 0:35 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +7% HOU DEN: Turnover
7 Q4 0:30 The Broncos converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +17% DEN DEN: Turnover
8 Q4 0:16 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedThe Broncos threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +52% HOU –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Dalton Schultz (HOU TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jarrett Patterson (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kareem Jackson (DEN SS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 11% · Texans 89%

Final margin
Texans by 5
Luck in points
3.9 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 8.9
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 61% · Texans 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 13 2023 games · Broncos · Texans

More from Week 13 2023