luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2023 NFL season · November 30, 2023–December 4

Week 13 2023: who deserved to win

No winner of Week 13 was behind in the replays. The closest call: the Texans won 22–17 and take 41% of replays.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 13 2023 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 1 of 3 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bengals 34–31 @ Jaguars 23% 65% Deserved
Cardinals 24–10 @ Steelers 33% 42% Coin flip
Packers 27–19 vs Chiefs 34% 42% Coin flip

Week 13 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Texans W 22–17 vs Broncos 41% +59
2 Cardinals W 24–10 @ Steelers 42% +58
3 Packers W 27–19 vs Chiefs 42% +58
4 Rams W 36–19 vs Browns 65% +35
5 Bengals W 34–31 @ Jaguars 65% +35
6 Colts W 31–28 @ Titans 66% +34
7 Chargers W 6–0 @ Patriots 75% +25
8 Lions W 33–28 @ Saints 82% +18
9 Cowboys W 41–35 vs Seahawks 85% +15
10 Buccaneers W 21–18 vs Panthers 91% +9
11 Falcons W 13–8 @ Jets 97% +3
12 49ers W 42–19 @ Eagles 97% +3
13 Dolphins W 45–15 @ Commanders 98% +2
14 Commanders L 15–45 vs Dolphins 2% −2
15 Eagles L 19–42 vs 49ers 3% −3
16 Jets L 8–13 vs Falcons 3% −3
17 Panthers L 18–21 @ Buccaneers 9% −9
18 Seahawks L 35–41 @ Cowboys 15% −15
19 Saints L 28–33 vs Lions 18% −18
20 Patriots L 0–6 vs Chargers 25% −25
21 Titans L 28–31 vs Colts 34% −34
22 Jaguars L 31–34 vs Bengals 35% −35
23 Browns L 19–36 @ Rams 35% −35
24 Chiefs L 19–27 @ Packers 58% −58
25 Steelers L 10–24 vs Cardinals 58% −58
26 Broncos L 17–22 @ Texans 59% −59