2023 NFL season · final
Every upset of 2023, and which were deserved
93 upsets in 2023, 35 of them deserved. The biggest: the Titans beat the Dolphins 28–27 (Week 14) as 15% underdogs, and got lucky.
An upset is a win by the underdog of the closing betting line. The line says 103 of these 285 games should have gone to the underdog; 93 did. “Deserved” when the winner takes 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form; “lucky” under 40% (27 of 93).
| # | Game | When | Before kickoff | Replay with same day’s form | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Titans 28, Dolphins 27 | 2023 Week 14 · Dec 11, 2023 | 15% | 5% | Lucky |
| 2 | Cardinals 35, Eagles 31 | 2023 Week 17 · Dec 31, 2023 | 19% | 53% | Coin flip |
| 3 | Cardinals 28, Cowboys 16 | 2023 Week 3 · Sep 24, 2023 | 20% | 64% | Deserved |
| 4 | Raiders 20, Chiefs 14 | 2023 Week 16 · Dec 25, 2023 | 21% | 73% | Deserved |
| 5 | Bengals 34, Jaguars 31 | 2023 Week 13 · Dec 4, 2023 | 23% | 62% | Deserved |
| 6 | Browns 19, 49ers 17 | 2023 Week 6 · Oct 15, 2023 | 24% | 18% | Lucky |
| 7 | Packers 29, Lions 22 | 2023 Week 12 · Nov 23, 2023 | 26% | 57% | Coin flip |
| 8 | Texans 37, Jaguars 17 | 2023 Week 3 · Sep 24, 2023 | 29% | 31% | Lucky |
| 9 | Colts 22, Ravens 19 | 2023 Week 3 · Sep 24, 2023 | 29% | 33% | Lucky |
| 10 | Patriots 29, Bills 25 | 2023 Week 7 · Oct 22, 2023 | 29% | 18% | Lucky |
| 11 | Broncos 24, Bills 22 | 2023 Week 10 · Nov 13, 2023 | 29% | 33% | Lucky |
| 12 | Giants 31, Commanders 19 | 2023 Week 11 · Nov 19, 2023 | 29% | 29% | Lucky |
| 13 | Vikings 22, 49ers 17 | 2023 Week 7 · Oct 23, 2023 | 30% | 66% | Deserved |
| 14 | Broncos 24, Chiefs 9 | 2023 Week 8 · Oct 29, 2023 | 30% | 39% | Lucky |
| 15 | Patriots 26, Broncos 23 | 2023 Week 16 · Dec 24, 2023 | 30% | 50% | Coin flip |
| 16 | Packers 48, Cowboys 32 | 2023 Wild Card · Jan 14, 2024 | 30% | 66% | Deserved |
| 17 | Jets 20, Eagles 14 | 2023 Week 6 · Oct 15, 2023 | 32% | 18% | Lucky |
| 18 | Ravens 33, 49ers 19 | 2023 Week 16 · Dec 25, 2023 | 32% | 81% | Deserved |
| 19 | Bears 40, Commanders 20 | 2023 Week 5 · Oct 5, 2023 | 33% | 22% | Lucky |
| 20 | Browns 33, Ravens 31 | 2023 Week 10 · Nov 12, 2023 | 33% | 14% | Lucky |
| 21 | Cardinals 24, Steelers 10 | 2023 Week 13 · Dec 3, 2023 | 33% | 42% | Coin flip |
| 22 | Patriots 21, Steelers 18 | 2023 Week 14 · Dec 7, 2023 | 33% | 47% | Coin flip |
| 23 | Giants 24, Packers 22 | 2023 Week 14 · Dec 11, 2023 | 33% | 27% | Lucky |
| 24 | Jaguars 25, Bills 20 | 2023 Week 5 · Oct 8, 2023 | 34% | 14% | Lucky |
| 25 | Texans 30, Bengals 27 | 2023 Week 10 · Nov 12, 2023 | 34% | 83% | Deserved |
| 26 | Packers 27, Chiefs 19 | 2023 Week 13 · Dec 3, 2023 | 34% | 25% | Lucky |
| 27 | Rams 21, 49ers 20 | 2023 Week 18 · Jan 7, 2024 | 34% | 58% | Coin flip |
| 28 | Seahawks 20, Eagles 17 | 2023 Week 15 · Dec 18, 2023 | 36% | 18% | Lucky |
| 29 | Rams 30, Seahawks 13 | 2023 Week 1 · Sep 10, 2023 | 37% | 67% | Deserved |
| 30 | Seahawks 37, Lions 31 | 2023 Week 2 · Sep 17, 2023 | 37% | 67% | Deserved |
| 31 | Steelers 30, Seahawks 23 | 2023 Week 17 · Dec 31, 2023 | 37% | 65% | Deserved |
| 32 | Chiefs 17, Ravens 10 | 2023 AFC Championship · Jan 28, 2024 | 37% | 49% | Coin flip |
| 33 | Steelers 17, Ravens 10 | 2023 Week 5 · Oct 8, 2023 | 37% | 44% | Coin flip |
| 34 | Giants 10, Patriots 7 | 2023 Week 12 · Nov 26, 2023 | 37% | 38% | Lucky |
| 35 | Giants 27, Eagles 10 | 2023 Week 18 · Jan 7, 2024 | 37% | 51% | Coin flip |
| 36 | Lions 21, Chiefs 20 | 2023 Week 1 · Sep 7, 2023 | 38% | 10% | Lucky |
| 37 | Buccaneers 20, Vikings 17 | 2023 Week 1 · Sep 10, 2023 | 38% | 10% | Lucky |
| 38 | Commanders 35, Broncos 33 | 2023 Week 2 · Sep 17, 2023 | 38% | 46% | Coin flip |
| 39 | Buccaneers 26, Saints 9 | 2023 Week 4 · Oct 1, 2023 | 38% | 87% | Deserved |
| 40 | Bengals 31, 49ers 17 | 2023 Week 8 · Oct 29, 2023 | 38% | 14% | Lucky |
| 41 | Buccaneers 34, Packers 20 | 2023 Week 15 · Dec 17, 2023 | 38% | 75% | Deserved |
| 42 | Jets 30, Texans 6 | 2023 Week 14 · Dec 10, 2023 | 40% | 65% | Deserved |
| 43 | Titans 28, Jaguars 20 | 2023 Week 18 · Jan 7, 2024 | 40% | 30% | Lucky |
| 44 | Ravens 27, Bengals 24 | 2023 Week 2 · Sep 17, 2023 | 40% | 54% | Coin flip |
| 45 | Steelers 24, Rams 17 | 2023 Week 7 · Oct 22, 2023 | 40% | 21% | Lucky |
| 46 | Vikings 31, Falcons 28 | 2023 Week 9 · Nov 5, 2023 | 40% | 44% | Coin flip |
| 47 | Chiefs 13, Chargers 12 | 2023 Week 18 · Jan 7, 2024 | 40% | 88% | Deserved |
| 48 | Raiders 17, Broncos 16 | 2023 Week 1 · Sep 10, 2023 | 41% | 41% | Coin flip |
| 49 | Dolphins 36, Chargers 34 | 2023 Week 1 · Sep 10, 2023 | 41% | 58% | Coin flip |
| 50 | Steelers 23, Raiders 18 | 2023 Week 3 · Sep 24, 2023 | 41% | 57% | Coin flip |
| 51 | Texans 30, Steelers 6 | 2023 Week 4 · Oct 1, 2023 | 41% | 87% | Deserved |
| 52 | Falcons 16, Buccaneers 13 | 2023 Week 7 · Oct 22, 2023 | 41% | 88% | Deserved |
| 53 | Giants 14, Commanders 7 | 2023 Week 7 · Oct 22, 2023 | 41% | 41% | Coin flip |
| 54 | Panthers 15, Texans 13 | 2023 Week 8 · Oct 29, 2023 | 41% | 44% | Coin flip |
| 55 | Vikings 27, Saints 19 | 2023 Week 10 · Nov 12, 2023 | 41% | 97% | Deserved |
| 56 | Packers 23, Chargers 20 | 2023 Week 11 · Nov 19, 2023 | 41% | 33% | Lucky |
| 57 | Bears 12, Vikings 10 | 2023 Week 12 · Nov 27, 2023 | 41% | 27% | Lucky |
| 58 | Broncos 24, Chargers 7 | 2023 Week 14 · Dec 10, 2023 | 41% | 86% | Deserved |
| 59 | Bears 28, Lions 13 | 2023 Week 14 · Dec 10, 2023 | 41% | 85% | Deserved |
| 60 | Panthers 9, Falcons 7 | 2023 Week 15 · Dec 17, 2023 | 41% | 56% | Coin flip |
| 61 | Texans 19, Titans 16 | 2023 Week 15 · Dec 17, 2023 | 41% | 84% | Deserved |
| 62 | Steelers 34, Bengals 11 | 2023 Week 16 · Dec 23, 2023 | 41% | 69% | Deserved |
| 63 | Jets 22, Bills 16 | 2023 Week 1 · Sep 11, 2023 | 43% | 56% | Coin flip |
| 64 | Titans 27, Chargers 24 | 2023 Week 2 · Sep 17, 2023 | 43% | 60% | Deserved |
| 65 | Steelers 26, Browns 22 | 2023 Week 2 · Sep 18, 2023 | 43% | 49% | Coin flip |
| 66 | Titans 27, Bengals 3 | 2023 Week 4 · Oct 1, 2023 | 43% | 43% | Coin flip |
| 67 | Saints 34, Patriots 0 | 2023 Week 5 · Oct 8, 2023 | 43% | 88% | Deserved |
| 68 | Jets 31, Broncos 21 | 2023 Week 5 · Oct 8, 2023 | 43% | 37% | Lucky |
| 69 | Colts 23, Titans 16 | 2023 Week 5 · Oct 8, 2023 | 43% | 50% | Coin flip |
| 70 | Jaguars 31, Saints 24 | 2023 Week 7 · Oct 19, 2023 | 43% | 86% | Deserved |
| 71 | Bears 30, Raiders 12 | 2023 Week 7 · Oct 22, 2023 | 43% | 76% | Deserved |
| 72 | Titans 28, Falcons 23 | 2023 Week 8 · Oct 29, 2023 | 43% | 48% | Coin flip |
| 73 | Commanders 20, Patriots 17 | 2023 Week 9 · Nov 5, 2023 | 43% | 74% | Deserved |
| 74 | Eagles 21, Chiefs 17 | 2023 Week 11 · Nov 20, 2023 | 43% | 42% | Coin flip |
| 75 | Saints 23, Buccaneers 13 | 2023 Week 17 · Dec 31, 2023 | 43% | 58% | Coin flip |
| 76 | Jets 17, Patriots 3 | 2023 Week 18 · Jan 7, 2024 | 43% | 93% | Deserved |
| 77 | Texans 45, Browns 14 | 2023 Wild Card · Jan 13, 2024 | 43% | 91% | Deserved |
| 78 | Buccaneers 32, Eagles 9 | 2023 Wild Card · Jan 15, 2024 | 43% | 82% | Deserved |
| 79 | Chiefs 27, Bills 24 | 2023 Divisional round · Jan 21, 2024 | 43% | 63% | Deserved |
| 80 | Texans 20, Saints 13 | 2023 Week 6 · Oct 15, 2023 | 44% | 52% | Coin flip |
| 81 | Cardinals 25, Falcons 23 | 2023 Week 10 · Nov 12, 2023 | 44% | 46% | Coin flip |
| 82 | Falcons 24, Saints 15 | 2023 Week 12 · Nov 26, 2023 | 44% | 80% | Deserved |
| 83 | Buccaneers 30, Jaguars 12 | 2023 Week 16 · Dec 24, 2023 | 44% | 81% | Deserved |
| 84 | Bills 20, Chiefs 17 | 2023 Week 14 · Dec 10, 2023 | 44% | 53% | Coin flip |
| 85 | Packers 18, Saints 17 | 2023 Week 3 · Sep 24, 2023 | 46% | 74% | Deserved |
| 86 | Commanders 24, Falcons 16 | 2023 Week 6 · Oct 15, 2023 | 46% | 27% | Lucky |
| 87 | Buccaneers 29, Falcons 25 | 2023 Week 14 · Dec 10, 2023 | 46% | 15% | Lucky |
| 88 | Chiefs 25, 49ers 22 | 2023 Super Bowl · Feb 11, 2024 | 46% | 16% | Lucky |
| 89 | Browns 24, Bengals 3 | 2023 Week 1 · Sep 10, 2023 | 47% | 88% | Deserved |
| 90 | Raiders 16, Jets 12 | 2023 Week 10 · Nov 12, 2023 | 47% | 48% | Coin flip |
| 91 | Packers 38, Bears 20 | 2023 Week 1 · Sep 10, 2023 | 47% | 58% | Coin flip |
| 92 | Chargers 28, Vikings 24 | 2023 Week 3 · Sep 24, 2023 | 47% | 48% | Coin flip |
| 93 | Packers 33, Vikings 10 | 2023 Week 17 · Dec 31, 2023 | 47% | 96% | Deserved |
Upsets week by week
| Week | Upsets | Deserved | Games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | 8 | 2 | 16 |
| Week 2 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| Week 3 | 6 | 2 | 16 |
| Week 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 |
| Week 5 | 6 | 1 | 14 |
| Week 6 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| Week 7 | 7 | 4 | 13 |
| Week 8 | 4 | 0 | 16 |
| Week 9 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| Week 10 | 6 | 2 | 14 |
| Week 11 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| Week 12 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| Week 13 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| Week 14 | 8 | 3 | 15 |
| Week 15 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| Week 16 | 5 | 4 | 16 |
| Week 17 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| Week 18 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| Wild Card | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| Divisional round | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| Conference championships | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| Super Bowl | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Other seasons: 2026 · 2025 · 2024 · 2022 · 2021 · 2020 · 2019
The biggest upsets since 2019 · 2023 luck rankings · Do unlucky teams cover the spread?