Super Bowl 2023 · February 11, 2024
49ers vs Chiefs, Super Bowl 2023: who deserved to win?
The Chiefs stole one. They beat the 49ers 25–22, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 8 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 7.9 points to the Chiefs.
Before kickoff the 49ers were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 7:25 left): J. Moody made 27-yard field goal, worth 86 points of win probability to the Chiefs.
Final (OT)
 San Francisco 49ers | 22 |
|---|---|
 Kansas City Chiefs | 25 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +84 Chiefs very lucky · −84 49ers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. 49ers win 8, Chiefs win 2.
- 1 SF 35 KC 3
- 2 SF 45 KC 20
- 3 SF 47 KC 27
- 4 SF 36 KC 20
- 5 SF 36 KC 23
- 6 SF 23 KC 14
- 7 SF 27 KC 21
- 8 SF 33 KC 31
- 9 SF 20 KC 23
- 10 SF 14 KC 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
49ers win 84% of them, Chiefs 16%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| 49ers by 17+ | 42.8% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 21.1% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 19.0% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Chiefs by 1–8 | 9.3% |
| Chiefs by 9–16 | 4.3% |
| Chiefs by 17+ | 1.9% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Chiefs by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 2.1.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Moody, 55 yds made · 65% expected
- H. Butker, 28 yds made · 99% expected
- H. Butker, 57 yds made · 69% expected
- H. Butker, 24 yds made · 100% expected
- J. Moody, 53 yds made · 69% expected
- H. Butker, 29 yds made · 99% expected
- J. Moody, 27 yds made · 98% expected
- Extra point missed · 95% expected
When it happened
Chiefs’ chance of winning
As low as 1% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 9:22 | The Chiefs fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50The Chiefs got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands | +27% KC | KC: Field goal |
| 2 | Q4 0:16 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +16% KC | KC: Field goal |
| 3 | QOT 14:09 | Defensive Holding on the Chiefs (Trent McDuffie), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 2098 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 | +20% SF | SF: Field goal |
| 4 | QOT 7:25 | J. Moody made 27-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him | +86% KC | – |
| 5 | QOT 6:29 | The Chiefs were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +16% SF | KC: Touchdown |
| 6 | QOT 6:05 | The Chiefs converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +21% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 7 | QOT 4:10 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +19% KC | KC: Touchdown |
| 8 | QOT 2:07 | The Chiefs converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +19% KC | KC: Touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Joe Thuney (KC G), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Charles Omenihu (KC DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
49ers 64% · Chiefs 36%
- Final margin
- Chiefs by 3
- Luck in points
- 5.1 for the Chiefs
- Luck-adjusted margin
- 49ers by 2.1
- Replay with same day's form
- 49ers 84% · Chiefs 16% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Super Bowl 2023 games · 
49ers · 
Chiefs