luckadjusted

Week 4 2023 · October 1, 2023

Buccaneers at Saints, Week 4 2023: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Saints 26–9, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Saints: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Saints were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:25 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 4, worth 13 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26
New Orleans Saints 9

October 1, 2023 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −4

Luck index +13 Buccaneers about even · −13 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 9, Saints win 1.

  1. 1 TB 48 NO 21
  2. 2 TB 32 NO 10
  3. 3 TB 27 NO 9
  4. 4 TB 24 NO 9
  5. 5 TB 20 NO 7
  6. 6 TB 30 NO 19
  7. 7 TB 27 NO 20
  8. 8 TB 24 NO 20
  9. 9 TB 22 NO 20
  10. 10 TB 17 NO 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Saints

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Buccaneers they would win 56% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.

43 points apart for the Saints: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Buccaneers offenseEPA per play gained +0.18 +0.04 better by 0.14
Buccaneers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.15 +0.10 better by 0.25
Saints offenseEPA per play gained −0.15 +0.07 worse by 0.22
Saints defenseEPA per play allowed +0.18 +0.03 worse by 0.15

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 87% of them, Saints 13%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+40.4%
Buccaneers by 9–1626.1%
Buccaneers by 1–820.4%
Level after regulation1.2%
Saints by 1–88.3%
Saints by 9–162.9%
Saints by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 6.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • B. Grupe, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 51 yds made · 71% expected
  • B. Grupe, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 67%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:09 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +6% TB NO: Field goal
2 Q1 12:05 The Saints converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 69% expected +9% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q1 4:37 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedA. Prentice dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 3 catchable balls before this +7% TB NO: Punt
4 Q2 10:00 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q2 6:40 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q2 5:25 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Saints (Nathan Shepherd), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2038 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +13% TB TB: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:41 The Saints fumbled and the Buccaneers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% TB NO: End of half
8 Q4 12:25 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedOffensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% TB NO: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Paulson Adebo (NO CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cesar Ruiz (NO G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Russell Gage (TB WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 87% · Saints 13%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 17
Luck in points
10.7 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 87% · Saints 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2023 games · Buccaneers · Saints

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