Week 4 2023 · October 1, 2023
Steelers at Texans, Week 4 2023: who deserved to win?
The Texans beat the Steelers 30–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Texans win 9 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.9 points to the Steelers.
An off day for the Steelers: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Steelers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:33 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Shaquill Griffin), 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 6 |
|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Texans about even · −13 Steelers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 1, Texans win 9.
- 1 PIT 23 HOU 17
- 2 PIT 13 HOU 16
- 3 PIT 13 HOU 18
- 4 PIT 20 HOU 27
- 5 PIT 20 HOU 30
- 6 PIT 10 HOU 23
- 7 PIT 6 HOU 22
- 8 PIT 3 HOU 21
- 9 PIT 6 HOU 27
- 10 PIT 6 HOU 34
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Steelers
Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Texans they would win 48% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
35 points apart for the Steelers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Steelers offenseEPA per play gained | −0.21 | +0.06 | worse by 0.27 |
| Steelers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.04 | +0.11 | better by 0.06 |
| Texans offenseEPA per play gained | +0.04 | −0.01 | better by 0.05 |
| Texans defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.21 | +0.15 | better by 0.35 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 13% of them, Texans 87%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Texans by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 0.6% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 2.7% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 8.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 19.3% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 28.0% |
| Texans by 17+ | 38.6% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Texans by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 29.4.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- K. Fairbairn, 36 yds made · 91% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 38 yds made · 89% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 39 yds made · 88% expected
- C. Boswell, 35 yds made · 94% expected
- C. Boswell, 23 yds made · 100% expected
When it happened
Texans’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:16 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +4% PIT | PIT: Turnover |
| 2 | Q2 15:00 | The Texans fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% HOU | HOU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 7:09 | The Texans were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +4% PIT | HOU: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 1:33 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Shaquill Griffin), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 10 flags in 3406 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 | +10% PIT | PIT: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 8:55 | The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Texans (C.J. Stroud), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 217 snaps before, position avg 1 per 643 | +4% PIT | HOU: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 7:17 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +6% PIT | PIT: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 2:45 | The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% PIT | PIT: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q3 1:16 | The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected | +6% HOU | PIT: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out · 1.1 pts
- Tytus Howard (HOU T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Tavierre Thomas (HOU CB), out · 0.4 pts
- Denzel Perryman (HOU LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Scott Quessenberry (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Kenyon Green (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Josh Jones (HOU G), out · 0.2 pts
- Cameron Johnston (HOU P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Diontae Johnson (PIT WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Cameron Heyward (PIT DT), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- James Daniels (PIT G), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 0% · Texans 100%
- Final margin
- Texans by 24
- Luck in points
- 5.4 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texans by 29.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 13% · Texans 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2023 games · 
Steelers · 
Texans
More from Week 4 2023
- Lions at Packers DET 34–20 · replay 94% for the winner
- Falcons vs Jaguars JAX 23–7 · replay 80% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns BAL 28–3 · replay 94% for the winner
- Bengals at Titans TEN 27–3 · replay 43% for the winner
- Broncos at Bears DEN 31–28 · replay 34% for the winner
- Rams at Colts LA 29–23 · replay 77% for the winner
- Dolphins at Bills BUF 48–20 · replay 98% for the winner
- Vikings at Panthers MIN 21–13 · replay 93% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Saints TB 26–9 · replay 87% for the winner
- Commanders at Eagles PHI 34–31 · replay 89% for the winner
- Raiders at Chargers LAC 24–17 · replay 89% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers SF 35–16 · replay 93% for the winner
- Patriots at Cowboys DAL 38–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- Chiefs at Jets KC 23–20 · replay 82% for the winner
- Seahawks at Giants SEA 24–3 · replay 89% for the winner