luckadjusted

Week 10 2023 · November 12, 2023

Saints at Vikings, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Saints 27–19, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 10 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 8.4 points to the Saints.

An off day for the Saints: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Saints were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:10 left): Defensive Offside on the Saints (Carl Granderson), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 13 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

New Orleans Saints 19
Minnesota Vikings 27

November 12, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Saints −3

Luck index +3 Vikings about even · −3 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 0, Vikings win 10.

  1. 1 NO 21 MIN 24
  2. 2 NO 14 MIN 20
  3. 3 NO 7 MIN 17
  4. 4 NO 9 MIN 23
  5. 5 NO 15 MIN 31
  6. 6 NO 7 MIN 25
  7. 7 NO 20 MIN 41
  8. 8 NO 9 MIN 33
  9. 9 NO 17 MIN 45
  10. 10 NO 3 MIN 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Saints

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 3%.

41 points apart for the Saints: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Saints offenseEPA per play gained −0.14 +0.07 worse by 0.21
Saints defenseEPA per play allowed +0.31 +0.04 worse by 0.28
Vikings offenseEPA per play gained +0.31 +0.11 better by 0.21
Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed −0.14 +0.10 better by 0.24

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 3% of them, Vikings 97%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+0.1%
Saints by 9–160.6%
Saints by 1–82.3%
Level after regulation0.6%
Vikings by 1–87.4%
Vikings by 9–1617.6%
Vikings by 17+71.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 26.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Joseph, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • B. Grupe, 48 yds made · 76% expected
  • G. Joseph, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • G. Joseph, 54 yds missed · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:56 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +5% NO MIN: Field goal
2 Q1 6:29 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +5% NO MIN: Punt
3 Q1 2:35 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Foster Moreau), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 3302 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +6% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:10 Defensive Offside on the Saints (Carl Granderson), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 2533 snaps before, position avg 1 per 295 +13% MIN MIN: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:54 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:23 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% NO NO: Punt
7 Q4 3:51 Offensive Offside on the Saints (Rashid Shaheed), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 861 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +10% MIN MIN: Punt
8 Q4 3:13 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedThe Saints threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 49% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% MIN NO: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kirk Cousins (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.dobbs · 6.2 pts
  • Justin Jefferson (MIN WR), out (IR) · 1.7 pts
  • K.J. Osborn (MIN WR), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 2% · Vikings 98%

Final margin
Vikings by 8
Luck in points
18.3 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 26.3
Replay with same day's form
Saints 3% · Vikings 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · Saints · Vikings

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