luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2023 · November 12, 2023

Titans at Buccaneers, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Titans 20–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:44 left): N. Folk missed a 51-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tennessee Titans 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

November 12, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −2.5

Luck index +7 Buccaneers about even · −7 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 1, Buccaneers win 9.

  1. 1 TEN 27 TB 19
  2. 2 TEN 17 TB 20
  3. 3 TEN 10 TB 15
  4. 4 TEN 6 TB 14
  5. 5 TEN 24 TB 34
  6. 6 TEN 17 TB 30
  7. 7 TEN 9 TB 25
  8. 8 TEN 15 TB 34
  9. 9 TEN 6 TB 28
  10. 10 TEN 0 TB 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 7% of them, Buccaneers 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.2%
Titans by 9–161.4%
Titans by 1–85.5%
Level after regulation0.8%
Buccaneers by 1–815.6%
Buccaneers by 9–1621.3%
Buccaneers by 17+55.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 14, without the luck Buccaneers by 9.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • N. Folk, 51 yds missed · 72% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • N. Folk, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 35 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 5 for 35 yards, Buccaneers 7 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:04 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.5 pts
Q1 0:55 Illegal Substitution on the Buccaneers (Zyon McCollum), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.5 pts
Q2 10:28 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.8 pts
Q2 10:01 False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.8 pts
Q3 8:28 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Joe Tryon-Shoyinka), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TEN +0.6 pts
Q3 2:13 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (William Gholston), 15 yards +1% TEN +1.1 pts
Q3 1:47 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 5 yards 0% TEN +0.2 pts
Q4 12:07 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +2% TEN +1.4 pts
Q4 11:51 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Elijah Molden), 5 yards +2% TB +1.1 pts
Q4 11:47 Illegal Contact on the Titans (Roger McCreary), 5 yards +1% TB +0.4 pts
Q4 9:04 Face Mask on the Titans (Azeez Al-Shaair), 15 yards +1% TB +1.8 pts
Q4 5:30 Illegal Formation on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +1.3 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:14 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +5% TB TEN: Field goal
2 Q1 5:17 The Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +6% TEN TB: Punt
3 Q1 3:41 The Titans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% TEN TEN: Punt
4 Q2 12:44 N. Folk missed a 51-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 34 of 44 from 45+ before +10% TB TEN: Punt
5 Q2 11:26 T. Palmer dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 17 catchable balls before this +6% TEN TB: Punt
6 Q2 1:22 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TB TB: Punt
7 Q2 0:46 M. Evans dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 143 catchable balls before this +5% TEN TB: Punt
8 Q3 12:17 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% TB TB: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Matt Feiler (TB G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN QB), out, replaced by w.levis · 2.7 pts
  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (TEN CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Daniel Brunskill (TEN C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 1% · Buccaneers 99%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 14
Luck in points
4.7 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 9.3
Replay with same day's form
Titans 7% · Buccaneers 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · Titans · Buccaneers

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