luckadjusted

Week 10 2023 · November 12, 2023

Titans at Buccaneers, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Titans 20–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 9 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 2.0 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:17 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 15, worth 14 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20

November 12, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −2.5

Luck index +10 Buccaneers about even · −10 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 1, Buccaneers win 9.

  1. 1 TEN 20 TB 14
  2. 2 TEN 17 TB 19
  3. 3 TEN 17 TB 22
  4. 4 TEN 10 TB 17
  5. 5 TEN 14 TB 24
  6. 6 TEN 13 TB 25
  7. 7 TEN 3 TB 19
  8. 8 TEN 14 TB 34
  9. 9 TEN 3 TB 27
  10. 10 TEN 3 TB 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 10% of them, Buccaneers 90%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+0.3%
Titans by 9–161.6%
Titans by 1–86.2%
Level after regulation2.1%
Buccaneers by 1–818.2%
Buccaneers by 9–1622.6%
Buccaneers by 17+49.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 6.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • N. Folk, 51 yds missed · 73% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • N. Folk, 27 yds made · 99% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 35 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:14 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +6% TB TEN: Field goal
2 Q1 5:17 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Buccaneers threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 45% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +14% TEN TB: Punt
3 Q2 12:44 N. Folk missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 34 of 44 from 45+ before +10% TB TEN: Punt
4 Q2 11:26 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedT. Palmer dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 17 catchable balls before this +8% TEN TB: Punt
5 Q2 6:25 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q2 1:22 The Buccaneers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TB TB: Punt
7 Q2 0:46 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expectedM. Evans dropped a catchable passDrops · 8 drops on 143 catchable balls before this +7% TEN TB: Punt
8 Q3 12:17 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +11% TB TB: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Matt Feiler (TB G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN QB), out, replaced by w.levis · 2.7 pts
  • Sean Murphy-Bunting (TEN CB), out · 0.9 pts
  • Daniel Brunskill (TEN C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nicholas Petit-Frere (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Treylon Burks (TEN WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 4% · Buccaneers 96%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 14
Luck in points
7.6 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Titans 10% · Buccaneers 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · Titans · Buccaneers

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