luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2023 · November 12, 2023

Browns at Ravens, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Ravens 33–31, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:24 left): Return touchdown by the Browns, worth 37 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 33
Baltimore Ravens 31

November 12, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −6

Luck index +86 Browns very lucky · −86 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 CLE 23 BAL 17
  2. 2 CLE 24 BAL 26
  3. 3 CLE 6 BAL 10
  4. 4 CLE 17 BAL 24
  5. 5 CLE 9 BAL 17
  6. 6 CLE 17 BAL 28
  7. 7 CLE 20 BAL 34
  8. 8 CLE 10 BAL 27
  9. 9 CLE 10 BAL 31
  10. 10 CLE 14 BAL 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 14% of them, Ravens 86%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.9%
Browns by 9–163.3%
Browns by 1–88.9%
Level after regulation2.1%
Ravens by 1–819.6%
Ravens by 9–1624.4%
Ravens by 17+40.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.1 points to the Browns: the final margin was Browns by 2, without the luck Browns by 1.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Tucker, 37 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Tucker, 55 yds blocked · 70% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 10 for 55 yards, Ravens 7 for 64 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:18 Encroachment on the Browns (Jordan Elliott), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.1 pts
Q1 8:12 Unnecessary Roughness on the Ravens (Kyle Van Noy), 15 yards +3% CLE +1.8 pts
Q1 6:07 Illegal Contact on the Browns (Denzel Ward), 5 yards +3% BAL +1.7 pts
Q1 1:22 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +0.5 pts
Q2 9:48 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +1% BAL +1.1 pts
Q2 7:53 Defensive Delay of Game on the Ravens (Kyle Hamilton), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.2 pts
Q2 5:06 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.9 pts
Q2 4:38 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Martin Emerson), 5 yards, wiping out the play +4% BAL +2.3 pts
Q2 4:38 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BAL +1.0 pts
Q3 7:27 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BAL +0.6 pts
Q4 14:00 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Greg Newsome II), 5 yards +2% BAL +1.8 pts
Q4 13:51 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards +1% CLE +0.9 pts
Q4 13:03 False Start on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.6 pts
Q4 12:21 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah), 5 yards, wiping out the play +12% BAL +5.5 pts
Q4 9:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Rock Ya-Sin), 19 yards +2% CLE +0.9 pts
Q4 5:51 Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.6 pts
Q4 4:55 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BAL +0.6 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Ravens penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:26 The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the RavensSpecial teams +22% BAL CLE: Punt
2 Q2 2:27 J. Tucker had a 55-yard field goal blockedKicks · 70% expected for him, 47 of 62 from 45+ before +7% CLE BAL: Turnover
3 Q4 12:21 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1670 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +12% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q4 8:24 The Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throwsReturn touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +37% CLE BAL: Punt
5 Q4 8:16 The Browns missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +9% BAL CLE: Field goal
6 Q4 7:37 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +7% BAL BAL: Punt
7 Q4 2:00 The Browns converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +10% CLE CLE: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 D. Hopkins made a 40-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +11% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Morgan Moses (BAL T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 65% · Ravens 35%

Final margin
Browns by 2
Luck in points
0.1 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 1.9
Replay with same day's form
Browns 14% · Ravens 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · Browns · Ravens

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