luckadjusted

Week 10 2023 · November 12, 2023

Browns at Ravens, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The Browns stole one. They beat the Ravens 33–31, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 2.7 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:24 left): Return touchdown by the Browns, worth 38 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 33
Baltimore Ravens 31

November 12, 2023 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −6

Luck index +86 Browns very lucky · −86 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 1, Ravens win 9.

  1. 1 CLE 33 BAL 27
  2. 2 CLE 23 BAL 26
  3. 3 CLE 28 BAL 34
  4. 4 CLE 13 BAL 21
  5. 5 CLE 27 BAL 38
  6. 6 CLE 19 BAL 33
  7. 7 CLE 10 BAL 26
  8. 8 CLE 10 BAL 30
  9. 9 CLE 17 BAL 41
  10. 10 CLE 6 BAL 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 14% of them, Ravens 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+1.3%
Browns by 9–163.8%
Browns by 1–89.1%
Level after regulation1.1%
Ravens by 1–823.8%
Ravens by 9–1621.6%
Ravens by 17+39.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 7.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Tucker, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Tucker, 55 yds blocked · 68% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 97%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:26 The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 52% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the RavensSpecial teams +22% BAL CLE: Punt
2 Q4 12:21 Defensive Holding on the Browns (Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1670 snaps before, position avg 1 per 444 +12% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q4 8:24 The Ravens threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's handsReturn touchdown by the BrownsSpecial teams +38% CLE BAL: Punt
4 Q4 8:16 The Browns missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +9% BAL CLE: Field goal
5 Q4 7:37 The Ravens converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% BAL BAL: Punt
6 Q4 3:02 The Browns fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CLE CLE: Field goal
7 Q4 2:00 The Browns converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +10% CLE CLE: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 D. Hopkins made 40-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him +30% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Morgan Moses (BAL T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Dawand Jones (CLE T), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 80% · Ravens 20%

Final margin
Browns by 2
Luck in points
5.8 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 7.8
Replay with same day's form
Browns 14% · Ravens 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · Browns · Ravens

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