luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2023 · November 12, 2023

49ers at Jaguars, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Jaguars 34–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 59% favorites.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 34
Jacksonville Jaguars 3

November 12, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −3

Luck index +2 49ers about even · −2 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 10, Jaguars win 0.

  1. 1 SF 47 JAX 9
  2. 2 SF 37 JAX 7
  3. 3 SF 40 JAX 14
  4. 4 SF 37 JAX 14
  5. 5 SF 27 JAX 7
  6. 6 SF 34 JAX 17
  7. 7 SF 38 JAX 24
  8. 8 SF 30 JAX 20
  9. 9 SF 32 JAX 25
  10. 10 SF 27 JAX 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 98% of them, Jaguars 2%. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 31.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+77.0%
49ers by 9–1614.3%
49ers by 1–86.3%
Level after regulation0.5%
Jaguars by 1–81.4%
Jaguars by 9–160.5%
Jaguars by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.4 points to the 49ers: the final margin was 49ers by 31, without the luck 49ers by 28.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Moody, 39 yds made · 88% expected
  • B. McManus, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • J. Moody, 35 yds made · 92% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: 49ers 7 for 90 yards, Jaguars 5 for 39 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:49 False Start on the Jaguars (Jamal Agnew), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.9 pts
Q1 1:31 Offensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Brandon Aiyuk), 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% JAX +2.5 pts
Q2 13:26 Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.7 pts
Q2 12:37 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +2% JAX +1.8 pts
Q2 10:46 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +1% SF +0.9 pts
Q2 5:57 Illegal Contact on the 49ers, 5 yards +1% JAX +0.6 pts
Q2 0:54 Face Mask on the Jaguars (Devin Lloyd), 14 yards +2% SF +1.6 pts
Q2 0:30 Intentional Grounding on the 49ers (Brock Purdy), 12 yards +2% JAX +1.1 pts
Q3 6:17 Roughing the Passer on the 49ers (Nick Bosa), 15 yards +2% JAX +2.3 pts
Q3 5:39 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the 49ers, 15 yards +2% JAX +1.4 pts
Q3 0:39 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Ambry Thomas), 23 yards 0% JAX +1.9 pts
Q4 12:30 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +0.8 pts

49ers penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:14 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% SF JAX: Punt
2 Q1 6:22 The 49ers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% SF SF: Field goal
3 Q1 5:07 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +4% JAX SF: Field goal
4 Q1 3:00 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +3% JAX JAX: Punt
5 Q1 1:31 Offensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Brandon Aiyuk), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 3369 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +5% JAX JAX: Turnover
6 Q2 13:26 The Jaguars fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% SF JAX: Field goal
7 Q2 4:29 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% SF JAX: Field goal
8 Q3 10:46 The Jaguars were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +4% SF JAX: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zay Jones (JAX WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Aaron Banks (SF G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 100% · Jaguars 0%

Final margin
49ers by 31
Luck in points
2.4 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 28.6
Replay with same day's form
49ers 98% · Jaguars 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · 49ers · Jaguars

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