luckadjusted

Week 10 2023 · November 12, 2023

Falcons at Cardinals, Week 10 2023: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Falcons 25–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Cardinals win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 3.3 points to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:49 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals, 32 yards, worth 19 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 23
Arizona Cardinals 25

November 12, 2023 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −2

Luck index +54 Cardinals lucky · −54 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 5, Cardinals win 5.

  1. 1 ATL 23 ARI 3
  2. 2 ATL 26 ARI 13
  3. 3 ATL 22 ARI 13
  4. 4 ATL 24 ARI 20
  5. 5 ATL 19 ARI 17
  6. 6 ATL 17 ARI 19
  7. 7 ATL 17 ARI 21
  8. 8 ATL 20 ARI 27
  9. 9 ATL 0 ARI 13
  10. 10 ATL 20 ARI 39

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 54% of them, Cardinals 46%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+10.0%
Falcons by 9–1615.7%
Falcons by 1–823.4%
Level after regulation6.5%
Cardinals by 1–824.5%
Cardinals by 9–1612.1%
Cardinals by 17+7.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cardinals by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 6.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 51 yds made · 74% expected
  • M. Prater, 46 yds made · 82% expected
  • M. Prater, 56 yds made · 66% expected
  • Y. Koo, 36 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Prater, 23 yds made · 99% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 2:46 Roughing the Passer on the Cardinals, 15 yardsJudgment calls +11% ATL ATL: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:14 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +11% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q3 5:39 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +11% ARI ATL: Field goal
4 Q4 8:01 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +13% ARI ATL: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:49 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cardinals, 32 yardsJudgment calls +19% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:39 The Falcons converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +11% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q4 1:50 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +18% ARI ARI: Field goal
8 Q4 0:02 M. Prater made 23-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +16% ARI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • D.J. Humphries (ARI T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Grady Jarrett (ATL DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • David Onyemata (ATL DT), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 21% · Cardinals 79%

Final margin
Cardinals by 2
Luck in points
4.6 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 54% · Cardinals 46% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2023 games · Falcons · Cardinals

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