luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2023 · November 27, 2023

Bears at Vikings, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Vikings 12–10, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bears win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:06 left): the Bears converted 3rd & 10, worth 27 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Chicago Bears 12
Minnesota Vikings 10

November 27, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3

Luck index +57 Bears lucky · −57 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 4, Vikings win 6.

  1. 1 CHI 35 MIN 16
  2. 2 CHI 21 MIN 11
  3. 3 CHI 31 MIN 26
  4. 4 CHI 5 MIN 3
  5. 5 CHI 17 MIN 19
  6. 6 CHI 24 MIN 28
  7. 7 CHI 13 MIN 22
  8. 8 CHI 10 MIN 21
  9. 9 CHI 9 MIN 24
  10. 10 CHI 17 MIN 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 43% of them, Vikings 57%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+7.9%
Bears by 9–1614.2%
Bears by 1–821.2%
Level after regulation6.5%
Vikings by 1–823.1%
Vikings by 9–1615.7%
Vikings by 17+11.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Bears by 2, without the luck Bears by 2.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 48 yds missed · 78% expected
  • C. Santos, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Joseph, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • C. Santos, 39 yds made · 91% expected
  • C. Santos, 55 yds made · 68% expected
  • C. Santos, 30 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Bears 7 for 76 yards, Vikings 4 for 24 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:09 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.3 pts
Q2 11:43 Taunting on the Bears (Kyler Gordon), 15 yards +4% MIN +1.2 pts
Q2 11:25 False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 10:09 Roughing the Passer on the Bears (Gervon Dexter), 15 yards +3% MIN +1.0 pts
Q2 8:59 Illegal Contact on the Bears (Terell Smith), 5 yards +4% MIN +1.5 pts
Q2 0:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kyler Gordon), 26 yards +4% MIN +1.7 pts
Q2 0:38 Intentional Grounding on the Vikings (Joshua Dobbs), 14 yards +2% CHI +1.0 pts
Q3 4:57 Defensive Holding on the Bears (Jaylon Johnson), 5 yards +7% MIN +1.6 pts
Q4 2:36 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CHI +0.3 pts
Q4 0:55 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% CHI +0.6 pts
Q4 0:05 Illegal Forward Pass on the Vikings (Joshua Dobbs), 0 yards 0% CHI 0.0 pts

Bears penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 80%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:57 C. Santos missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 23 of 32 from 45+ before +8% MIN CHI: Field goal
2 Q1 0:22 The Bears converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +10% CHI CHI: Field goal
3 Q2 7:34 The Vikings were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +8% CHI MIN: Punt
4 Q3 2:46 The Vikings were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +11% CHI MIN: Turnover
5 Q4 14:20 C. Santos made a 55-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 23 of 33 from 45+ before +7% CHI CHI: Turnover
6 Q4 12:32 The Bears fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CHI CHI: Turnover
7 Q4 3:36 The Bears fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% MIN CHI: Field goal
8 Q4 1:06 The Bears converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +27% CHI CHI: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kirk Cousins (MIN QB), out (IR), replaced by j.dobbs · 5.8 pts
  • Justin Jefferson (MIN WR), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Jordan Hicks (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Akayleb Evans (MIN CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Marcus Davenport (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Tyrique Stevenson (CHI CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Larry Borom (CHI T), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 87% · Vikings 13%

Final margin
Bears by 2
Luck in points
0.2 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Bears by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Bears 43% · Vikings 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Bears · Vikings

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