Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023
Rams at Cardinals, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?
The Rams beat the Cardinals 37–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 10 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.7 points to the Cardinals.
An off day for the Cardinals: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Rams were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 14:26 left): the Rams converted 3rd & 8, worth 14 points of win probability to the Rams.
Final
 Los Angeles Rams | 37 |
|---|---|
 Arizona Cardinals | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Rams about even · −2 Cardinals
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Rams win 10, Cardinals win 0.
- 1 LA 55 ARI 17
- 2 LA 31 ARI 3
- 3 LA 34 ARI 10
- 4 LA 45 ARI 24
- 5 LA 31 ARI 13
- 6 LA 29 ARI 13
- 7 LA 20 ARI 7
- 8 LA 20 ARI 10
- 9 LA 20 ARI 14
- 10 LA 33 ARI 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Cardinals
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 33% of the time; with this day’s form, 2%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
32 points apart for the Cardinals: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rams offenseEPA per play gained | +0.43 | +0.07 | better by 0.36 |
| Rams defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.11 | +0.09 | better by 0.20 |
| Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained | −0.11 | +0.01 | worse by 0.12 |
| Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.43 | +0.13 | worse by 0.30 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Rams win 98% of them, Cardinals 2%. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 23.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Rams by 17+ | 76.5% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 16.2% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 5.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.4% |
| Cardinals by 1–8 | 1.4% |
| Cardinals by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Cardinals by 17+ | 0.1% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Rams by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 25.4.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- L. Havrisik, 50 yds missed · 74% expected
- L. Havrisik, 24 yds made · 98% expected
- M. Prater, 56 yds missed · 67% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
When it happened
Cardinals’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:26 | The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +14% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 12:34 | The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +6% LA | LA: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 8:50 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 4:54 | The Cardinals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +7% ARI | ARI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 1:18 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +6% ARI | LA: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 9:07 | The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% LA | ARI: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 3:41 | L. Havrisik missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him, 2 of 3 from 45+ before | +11% ARI | LA: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 2:00 | The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +11% LA | ARI: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Michael Wilson (ARI WR), out · 0.8 pts
- Zach Ertz (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Antonio Hamilton (ARI CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Kyzir White (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Dennis Daley (ARI T), out · 0.3 pts
- Elijah Wilkinson (ARI G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- Kevin Strong (ARI NT), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Rams 100% · Cardinals 0%
- Final margin
- Rams by 23
- Luck in points
- 2.4 for the Cardinals
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rams by 25.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Rams 98% · Cardinals 2% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · 
Rams · 
Cardinals
More from Week 12 2023
- Packers at Lions GB 29–22 · replay 57% for the winner
- Commanders at Cowboys DAL 45–10 · replay 75% for the winner
- 49ers at Seahawks SF 31–13 · replay 98% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets MIA 34–13 · replay 100% for the winner
- Panthers at Titans TEN 17–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans JAX 24–21 · replay 62% for the winner
- Patriots at Giants NYG 10–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Saints at Falcons ATL 24–15 · replay 80% for the winner
- Steelers at Bengals PIT 16–10 · replay 85% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Colts IND 27–20 · replay 64% for the winner
- Browns at Broncos DEN 29–12 · replay 79% for the winner
- Bills at Eagles PHI 37–34 · replay 41% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 31–17 · replay 82% for the winner
- Ravens at Chargers BAL 20–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Bears at Vikings CHI 12–10 · replay 27% for the winner