luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023

Jaguars at Texans, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Texans 24–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Jaguars win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 28 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:40 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 8, worth 20 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 24
Houston Texans 21

November 26, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −1

Luck index +57 Jaguars lucky · −57 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 4, Texans win 6.

  1. 1 JAX 34 HOU 14
  2. 2 JAX 30 HOU 17
  3. 3 JAX 26 HOU 20
  4. 4 JAX 22 HOU 20
  5. 5 JAX 24 HOU 26
  6. 6 JAX 16 HOU 20
  7. 7 JAX 23 HOU 30
  8. 8 JAX 30 HOU 41
  9. 9 JAX 17 HOU 33
  10. 10 JAX 5 HOU 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 43% of them, Texans 57%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+7.6%
Jaguars by 9–1613.5%
Jaguars by 1–819.2%
Level after regulation3.0%
Texans by 1–828.1%
Texans by 9–1615.8%
Texans by 17+12.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.1 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 3, without the luck Texans by 8.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 40 yds made · 91% expected
  • B. McManus, 48 yds made · 81% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 50 yds missed · 68% expected
  • B. McManus, 53 yds made · 74% expected
  • B. McManus, 55 yds missed · 72% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 58 yds missed · 59% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 6 for 35 yards, Texans 7 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:09 Delay of Game on the Texans, 6 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.6 pts
Q1 5:54 Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% JAX +1.7 pts
Q1 0:20 Illegal Shift on the Texans (Tank Dell), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +20% JAX +5.9 pts
Q2 9:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (DeAndre Houston-Carson), 4 yards +4% JAX +2.1 pts
Q2 6:37 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.7 pts
Q2 0:10 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.2 pts
Q3 14:16 Illegal Formation on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% HOU +0.9 pts
Q3 6:14 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Tavierre Thomas), 15 yards +5% JAX +1.6 pts
Q3 5:24 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Tavierre Thomas), 4 yards +6% JAX +2.1 pts
Q3 1:13 Defensive Holding on the Texans (Steven Nelson), 5 yards +4% JAX +1.6 pts
Q4 13:51 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards +2% HOU +1.3 pts
Q4 11:38 Illegal Formation on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% HOU +1.3 pts
Q4 3:01 Defensive Holding on the Jaguars (Tre Herndon), 5 yards +4% HOU +0.9 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:00 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +11% JAX JAX: Field goal
2 Q1 0:20 Illegal Shift on the Texans (Tank Dell), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 472 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +20% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q4 5:22 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +9% HOU HOU: Touchdown
4 Q4 3:17 The Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +11% JAX JAX: Punt
5 Q4 2:30 The Texans converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +9% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
6 Q4 1:40 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +20% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:47 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% JAX HOU: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:34 M. Ammendola missed a 58-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 3 of 9 from 45+ before +17% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Noah Brown (HOU WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kendrick Green (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jarrett Patterson (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 12% · Texans 88%

Final margin
Jaguars by 3
Luck in points
11.1 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 8.1
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 43% · Texans 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Jaguars · Texans

More from Week 12 2023