luckadjusted

Week 12 2023 · November 26, 2023

Jaguars at Texans, Week 12 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Texans 24–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: drops alone were worth 1.6 points to the Texans.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:40 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 8, worth 20 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 24
Houston Texans 21

November 26, 2023 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −1

Luck index +38 Jaguars lucky · −38 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 6, Texans win 4.

  1. 1 JAX 29 HOU 3
  2. 2 JAX 22 HOU 6
  3. 3 JAX 34 HOU 23
  4. 4 JAX 30 HOU 23
  5. 5 JAX 24 HOU 20
  6. 6 JAX 26 HOU 24
  7. 7 JAX 24 HOU 26
  8. 8 JAX 24 HOU 30
  9. 9 JAX 10 HOU 22
  10. 10 JAX 14 HOU 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 62% of them, Texans 38%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+16.0%
Jaguars by 9–1616.2%
Jaguars by 1–827.5%
Level after regulation3.0%
Texans by 1–818.7%
Texans by 9–1612.1%
Texans by 17+6.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 13.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 40 yds made · 90% expected
  • B. McManus, 48 yds made · 81% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 50 yds missed · 70% expected
  • B. McManus, 53 yds made · 73% expected
  • B. McManus, 55 yds missed · 70% expected
  • M. Ammendola, 58 yds missed · 57% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:00 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +12% JAX JAX: Field goal
2 Q1 0:20 Illegal Shift on the Texans (Tank Dell), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 472 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +19% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:10 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedFalse Start on the Jaguars, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% JAX JAX: End of half
4 Q4 5:22 The Texans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +13% HOU HOU: Touchdown
5 Q4 3:17 The Jaguars got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 48% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% JAX JAX: Punt
6 Q4 1:40 The Texans converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +20% HOU HOU: Missed field goal
7 Q4 0:47 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% JAX HOU: Missed field goal
8 Q4 0:34 M. Ammendola missed 58-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 3 of 9 from 45+ before +16% JAX –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jimmie Ward (HOU FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Noah Brown (HOU WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ka'imi Fairbairn (HOU K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kendrick Green (HOU C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Denzel Perryman (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jarrett Patterson (HOU G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tyson Campbell (JAX CB), out · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 6% · Texans 94%

Final margin
Jaguars by 3
Luck in points
16.4 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 13.4
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 62% · Texans 38% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2023 games · Jaguars · Texans

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