luckadjusted

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Giants at Commanders, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Commanders 31–19, but the Commanders played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:19 left): Illegal Contact on the Giants (Tre Hawkins), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 63 points of win probability to the Commanders.

Final

New York Giants 31
Washington Commanders 19

November 19, 2023 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −7.5

Luck index +71 Giants very lucky · −71 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 3, Commanders win 7.

  1. 1 NYG 29 WAS 13
  2. 2 NYG 10 WAS 3
  3. 3 NYG 23 WAS 20
  4. 4 NYG 16 WAS 17
  5. 5 NYG 19 WAS 25
  6. 6 NYG 13 WAS 22
  7. 7 NYG 13 WAS 26
  8. 8 NYG 14 WAS 31
  9. 9 NYG 10 WAS 30
  10. 10 NYG 7 WAS 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 29% of them, Commanders 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+4.0%
Giants by 9–168.6%
Giants by 1–814.8%
Level after regulation3.7%
Commanders by 1–822.4%
Commanders by 9–1619.2%
Commanders by 17+27.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Giants by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Giants by 17.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 42 yds made · 84% expected
  • R. Bullock, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:05 The Giants converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +14% NYG NYG: Touchdown
2 Q2 6:06 The Giants converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +12% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:23 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedD. Slayton dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 99 catchable balls before this +10% WAS NYG: Punt
4 Q3 0:51 The Commanders fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% NYG WAS: Turnover
5 Q4 11:22 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedThe Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 43% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +11% NYG WAS: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:24 B. Robinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 38 catchable balls before this +12% NYG WAS: Opp touchdown
7 Q4 1:19 Illegal Contact on the Giants (Tre Hawkins), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 340 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +63% WAS WAS: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 0:29 The Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 44% expected to stay out of the defense's handsFalse Start on the Commanders, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams +39% NYG WAS: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cody Barton (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrick Forrest (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Saahdiq Charles (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out (IR), replaced by t.devito · 1.9 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Darren Waller (NYG TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joshua Ezeudu (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Shane Lemieux (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 99% · Commanders 1%

Final margin
Giants by 12
Luck in points
5.4 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 17.4
Replay with same day's form
Giants 29% · Commanders 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Giants · Commanders

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