luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Giants at Commanders, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Commanders 31–19, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Giants win 5 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 21 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Commanders were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:29 left): Return touchdown by the Giants, worth 38 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 31
Washington Commanders 19

November 19, 2023 · FedExField · Closing line: Commanders −7.5

Luck index +54 Giants lucky · −54 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 5, Commanders win 5.

  1. 1 NYG 41 WAS 17
  2. 2 NYG 25 WAS 10
  3. 3 NYG 19 WAS 9
  4. 4 NYG 26 WAS 20
  5. 5 NYG 19 WAS 16
  6. 6 NYG 15 WAS 17
  7. 7 NYG 22 WAS 28
  8. 8 NYG 13 WAS 23
  9. 9 NYG 23 WAS 38
  10. 10 NYG 13 WAS 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 46% of them, Commanders 54%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+10.7%
Giants by 9–1614.1%
Giants by 1–820.5%
Level after regulation5.0%
Commanders by 1–821.2%
Commanders by 9–1615.3%
Commanders by 17+13.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Commanders: the final margin was Giants by 12, without the luck Giants by 13.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • R. Bullock, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 5 for 33 yards, Commanders 1 for 5 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q3 9:35 Defensive Offside on the Giants (D.J. Davidson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 5:14 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Giants, 5 yards +2% WAS +0.8 pts
Q4 3:05 Defensive Offside on the Giants (Jihad Ward), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +2.0 pts
Q4 2:54 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Kayvon Thibodeaux), 13 yards +2% WAS +1.3 pts
Q4 1:19 Illegal Contact on the Giants (Tre Hawkins), 5 yards, wiping out the play +30% WAS +3.8 pts
Q4 0:29 False Start on the Commanders, 5 yards · pre-snap +7% NYG +0.6 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Commanders penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:05 The Giants converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +11% NYG NYG: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:01 The Giants converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% NYG NYG: Touchdown
3 Q2 1:32 The Commanders missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +7% NYG WAS: End of half
4 Q2 1:23 D. Slayton dropped a catchable passDrops · 6 drops on 99 catchable balls before this +9% WAS NYG: Punt
5 Q3 0:51 The Commanders fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +12% NYG WAS: Turnover
6 Q4 1:24 B. Robinson dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 38 catchable balls before this +8% NYG WAS: Opp touchdown
7 Q4 1:19 Illegal Contact on the Giants (Tre Hawkins), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 340 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +30% WAS WAS: Opp touchdown
8 Q4 0:29 The Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throwsFalse Start on the Commanders, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams +38% NYG WAS: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cody Barton (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrick Forrest (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Saahdiq Charles (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Daniel Jones (NYG QB), out (IR), replaced by t.devito · 1.9 pts
  • Evan Neal (NYG T), out · 0.7 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (NYG CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Darren Waller (NYG TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Graham Gano (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joshua Ezeudu (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Shane Lemieux (NYG G), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 96% · Commanders 4%

Final margin
Giants by 12
Luck in points
1.1 for the Commanders
Luck-adjusted margin
Giants by 13.1
Replay with same day's form
Giants 46% · Commanders 54% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Giants · Commanders

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