luckadjusted

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Bears at Lions, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat the Bears 31–26 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.3 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Lions were 72% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:51 left): T. Scott dropped a catchable pass, worth 16 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Chicago Bears 26
Detroit Lions 31

November 19, 2023 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −8

Luck index +21 Lions about even · −21 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 2, Lions win 8.

  1. 1 CHI 33 DET 21
  2. 2 CHI 29 DET 26
  3. 3 CHI 21 DET 23
  4. 4 CHI 21 DET 26
  5. 5 CHI 10 DET 17
  6. 6 CHI 16 DET 26
  7. 7 CHI 17 DET 30
  8. 8 CHI 6 DET 23
  9. 9 CHI 0 DET 20
  10. 10 CHI 10 DET 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 21% of them, Lions 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+2.3%
Bears by 9–165.9%
Bears by 1–811.8%
Level after regulation2.1%
Lions by 1–827.0%
Lions by 9–1620.3%
Lions by 17+30.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 4.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 31 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Santos, 53 yds made · 70% expected
  • C. Santos, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • C. Santos, 39 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 4% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 5:02 The Bears converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% CHI CHI: Field goal
2 Q2 0:16 The Lions converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +16% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q3 9:42 Illegal Contact on the Lions (Brian Branch), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 365 snaps before, position avg 1 per 462 +9% CHI CHI: Field goal
4 Q3 6:41 The Lions fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% CHI DET: Turnover
5 Q3 2:33 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expectedThe Lions threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 47% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +13% CHI DET: Punt
6 Q4 2:51 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedT. Scott dropped a catchable passDrops · 1 drops on 12 catchable balls before this +16% DET CHI: Punt
7 Q4 0:38 The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +13% DET DET: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:29 The Lions’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +12% DET DET: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonah Jackson (DET G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Nelson (DET T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Scott Daly (DET LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 31% · Lions 69%

Final margin
Lions by 5
Luck in points
0.2 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Bears 21% · Lions 79% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Bears · Lions

More from Week 11 2023