luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Raiders at Dolphins, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Raiders 20–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Dolphins win 9 of 10. The Raiders had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Before kickoff the Dolphins were 85% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:16 left): T. Tucker dropped a catchable pass, worth 20 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 13
Miami Dolphins 20

November 19, 2023 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −14

Luck index +11 Dolphins about even · −11 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 1, Dolphins win 9.

  1. 1 LV 21 MIA 14
  2. 2 LV 13 MIA 16
  3. 3 LV 27 MIA 33
  4. 4 LV 17 MIA 25
  5. 5 LV 13 MIA 24
  6. 6 LV 20 MIA 34
  7. 7 LV 27 MIA 45
  8. 8 LV 20 MIA 41
  9. 9 LV 24 MIA 49
  10. 10 LV 17 MIA 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 11% of them, Dolphins 89%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+1.0%
Raiders by 9–163.1%
Raiders by 1–86.4%
Level after regulation1.5%
Dolphins by 1–817.6%
Dolphins by 9–1618.6%
Dolphins by 17+51.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.9 points to the Dolphins: the final margin was Dolphins by 7, without the luck Dolphins by 5.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Carlson, 47 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Sanders, 50 yds missed · 67% expected
  • J. Sanders, 41 yds made · 86% expected
  • J. Sanders, 51 yds made · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Raiders 5 for 41 yards, Dolphins 5 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:20 Offensive Holding on the Raiders, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% MIA +1.4 pts
Q1 12:20 Illegal Blindside Block on the Dolphins, 14 yards +4% LV +1.3 pts
Q1 9:14 Offensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Michael Mayer), 10 yards +3% MIA +1.5 pts
Q1 4:03 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Jakorian Bennett), 5 yards, wiping out the play +8% MIA +2.4 pts
Q2 11:30 Face Mask on the Raiders (Tyree Wilson), 11 yards +3% MIA +1.4 pts
Q2 10:04 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% LV +0.5 pts
Q2 1:18 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% MIA +0.2 pts
Q4 12:11 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Dolphins (Justin Bethel), 10 yards +3% LV +0.9 pts
Q4 7:47 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +4% LV +1.7 pts
Q4 2:05 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.2 pts

Raiders penalties, every game · Dolphins penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:03 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Jakorian Bennett), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 320 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +8% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:13 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +9% MIA MIA: Turnover on downs
3 Q2 9:13 The Dolphins were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +12% LV MIA: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:33 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +8% MIA MIA: Touchdown
5 Q3 5:39 The Dolphins got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +8% MIA MIA: Field goal
6 Q4 3:16 T. Tucker dropped a catchable passDrops · 0 drops on 9 catchable balls before this +20% MIA LV: Turnover
7 Q4 0:46 D. Adams dropped a catchable passDrops · 10 drops on 201 catchable balls before this +11% MIA LV: Turnover
8 Q4 0:32 The Raiders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +10% MIA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Robert Hunt (MIA G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Durham Smythe (MIA TE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (MIA G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Robert Jones (MIA G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Brian Hoyer (LV QB), out, replaced by a.o'connell · 1.4 pts
  • Kolton Miller (LV T), out · 0.9 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 14% · Dolphins 86%

Final margin
Dolphins by 7
Luck in points
1.9 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 5.1
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 11% · Dolphins 89% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Raiders · Dolphins

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