luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Buccaneers at 49ers, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Buccaneers 27–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 84% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:48 left): the 49ers converted 3rd & 7, worth 9 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14
San Francisco 49ers 27

November 19, 2023 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −13.5

Luck index +1 49ers about even · −1 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 0, 49ers win 10.

  1. 1 TB 17 SF 23
  2. 2 TB 14 SF 24
  3. 3 TB 10 SF 23
  4. 4 TB 17 SF 34
  5. 5 TB 14 SF 34
  6. 6 TB 16 SF 38
  7. 7 TB 27 SF 52
  8. 8 TB 13 SF 41
  9. 9 TB 17 SF 49
  10. 10 TB 10 SF 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 1% of them, 49ers 99%. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+0.0%
Buccaneers by 9–160.1%
Buccaneers by 1–80.6%
Level after regulation0.2%
49ers by 1–82.9%
49ers by 9–169.5%
49ers by 17+86.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.2 points to the 49ers: the final margin was 49ers by 13, without the luck 49ers by 12.8. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Moody, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Moody, 28 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Buccaneers 3 for 19 yards, 49ers 7 for 66 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:13 Fair Catch Interference on the 49ers (George Odum), 15 yards +2% TB +1.4 pts
Q1 10:24 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (YaYa Diaby), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.6 pts
Q1 7:09 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Brandon Aiyuk), 10 yards +3% TB +0.9 pts
Q1 6:44 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 5 yards +6% SF +0.7 pts
Q1 1:13 Defensive Offside on the 49ers (Talanoa Hufanga), 4 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.5 pts
Q2 13:44 Defensive Offside on the 49ers (Arik Armstead), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% SF 0.0 pts
Q2 4:46 Defensive Offside on the 49ers (Nick Bosa), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.8 pts
Q3 10:54 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Buccaneers (SirVocea Dennis), 9 yards +2% SF +0.7 pts
Q4 14:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Fred Warner), 22 yards +1% TB +2.0 pts
Q4 14:11 False Start on the 49ers (Kyle Juszczyk), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.6 pts

Buccaneers penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:05 The Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 50% of interception-worthy throws +5% TB TB: Punt
2 Q1 7:48 The 49ers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +9% SF SF: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:44 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 4031 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% SF SF: Touchdown
4 Q2 14:25 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +4% TB TB: Turnover
5 Q2 13:15 The Buccaneers fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% SF TB: Touchdown
6 Q2 0:24 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% TB SF: Field goal
7 Q2 0:20 J. Moody made a 28-yard field goalKicks · 96% expected for him +4% TB SF: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:42 The Buccaneers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +5% SF TB: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Aaron Banks (SF G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Neal (TB SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Feiler (TB G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 0% · 49ers 100%

Final margin
49ers by 13
Luck in points
0.2 for the 49ers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 12.8
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 1% · 49ers 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Buccaneers · 49ers

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