luckadjusted

Week 11 2023 · November 19, 2023

Buccaneers at 49ers, Week 11 2023: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Buccaneers 27–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 10 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.4 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 84% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:42 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 6, worth 10 points of win probability to the 49ers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14
San Francisco 49ers 27

November 19, 2023 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −13.5

Luck index +2 49ers about even · −2 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 0, 49ers win 10.

  1. 1 TB 12 SF 16
  2. 2 TB 16 SF 23
  3. 3 TB 23 SF 34
  4. 4 TB 10 SF 24
  5. 5 TB 12 SF 30
  6. 6 TB 10 SF 30
  7. 7 TB 7 SF 30
  8. 8 TB 10 SF 37
  9. 9 TB 3 SF 34
  10. 10 TB 3 SF 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 2% of them, 49ers 98%. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+0.0%
Buccaneers by 9–160.2%
Buccaneers by 1–81.3%
Level after regulation0.5%
49ers by 1–83.6%
49ers by 9–1612.5%
49ers by 17+81.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 14.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Moody, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • J. Moody, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 48% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:51 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +4% TB SF: Punt
2 Q1 12:05 The Buccaneers got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% TB TB: Punt
3 Q1 7:48 The 49ers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% SF SF: Touchdown
4 Q1 6:44 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Jamel Dean), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 16 flags in 4031 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +6% SF SF: Touchdown
5 Q2 14:25 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +4% TB TB: Turnover
6 Q2 13:15 The Buccaneers fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% SF TB: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:24 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +5% TB SF: Field goal
8 Q4 3:42 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Buccaneers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · 0% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +10% SF TB: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Aaron Banks (SF G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Neal (TB SS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Feiler (TB G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 0% · 49ers 100%

Final margin
49ers by 13
Luck in points
1.1 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 14.1
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 2% · 49ers 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2023 games · Buccaneers · 49ers

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