luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2023 · December 31, 2023

Saints at Buccaneers, Week 17 2023: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Buccaneers 23–13, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 11:40 left): the Saints converted 3rd & 7, worth 10 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 23
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

December 31, 2023 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −2.5

Luck index +24 Saints about even · −24 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 8, Buccaneers win 2.

  1. 1 NO 48 TB 21
  2. 2 NO 36 TB 17
  3. 3 NO 27 TB 13
  4. 4 NO 29 TB 17
  5. 5 NO 27 TB 17
  6. 6 NO 23 TB 16
  7. 7 NO 20 TB 17
  8. 8 NO 15 TB 14
  9. 9 NO 24 TB 27
  10. 10 NO 17 TB 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 76% of them, Buccaneers 24%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+23.5%
Saints by 9–1622.5%
Saints by 1–826.9%
Level after regulation3.5%
Buccaneers by 1–813.8%
Buccaneers by 9–166.3%
Buccaneers by 17+3.5%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.9 points to the Saints: the final margin was Saints by 10, without the luck Saints by 4.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. Grupe, 45 yds made · 79% expected
  • B. Grupe, 28 yds made · 96% expected
  • B. Grupe, 38 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 5 for 31 yards, Buccaneers 5 for 38 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 1:58 Face Mask on the Saints (Bryan Bresee), 15 yards, wiping out the play +6% TB +2.2 pts
Q2 14:24 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Buccaneers, 4 yards, wiping out the play +6% NO +1.6 pts
Q2 13:10 False Start on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.7 pts
Q2 12:48 Illegal Contact on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 5 yards +5% TB +1.8 pts
Q2 11:56 False Start on the Saints (Derek Carr), 1 yard · pre-snap +1% TB +0.5 pts
Q2 6:11 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.7 pts
Q3 14:01 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.5 pts
Q3 11:57 Offensive Holding on the Buccaneers, 10 yards +2% NO +1.3 pts
Q3 6:11 Horse Collar Tackle on the Buccaneers (Anthony Nelson), 14 yards +1% NO +1.7 pts
Q4 3:51 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TB +0.6 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:40 The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +10% NO NO: Touchdown
2 Q1 1:58 Face Mask on the Saints (Bryan Bresee), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 536 snaps before, position avg 1 per 316 +6% TB TB: Turnover
3 Q1 0:15 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% TB TB: Turnover
4 Q2 14:24 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Buccaneers, 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% NO NO: Punt
5 Q2 12:48 Illegal Contact on the Saints (Paulson Adebo), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 19 flags in 2654 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +5% TB TB: Turnover
6 Q2 12:03 The Buccaneers were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +9% NO TB: Punt
7 Q2 10:57 The Saints converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% NO NO: Punt
8 Q2 5:56 C. Edmonds dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 30 catchable balls before this +8% NO TB: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carlton Davis (TB CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Shaquil Barrett (TB LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Ryan Ramczyk (NO T), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Marcus Maye (NO FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 66% · Buccaneers 34%

Final margin
Saints by 10
Luck in points
5.9 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 4.1
Replay with same day's form
Saints 76% · Buccaneers 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2023 games · Saints · Buccaneers

More from Week 17 2023