luckadjusted

Week 17 2023 · December 31, 2023

Panthers at Jaguars, Week 17 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Panthers 26–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 10 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 3.1 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:15 left): the Panthers were stopped on 4th & 7, worth 11 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Carolina Panthers 0
Jacksonville Jaguars 26

December 31, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −3.5

Luck index +5 Jaguars about even · −5 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 0, Jaguars win 10.

  1. 1 CAR 3 JAX 5
  2. 2 CAR 12 JAX 17
  3. 3 CAR 8 JAX 16
  4. 4 CAR 3 JAX 13
  5. 5 CAR 7 JAX 20
  6. 6 CAR 17 JAX 33
  7. 7 CAR 10 JAX 27
  8. 8 CAR 10 JAX 30
  9. 9 CAR 6 JAX 31
  10. 10 CAR 5 JAX 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 5% of them, Jaguars 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.1%
Panthers by 9–160.9%
Panthers by 1–83.6%
Level after regulation1.1%
Jaguars by 1–815.7%
Jaguars by 9–1621.6%
Jaguars by 17+57.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 26. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 24.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. McManus, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. McManus, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • B. McManus, 34 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:23 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% JAX JAX: Field goal
2 Q1 9:18 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +7% CAR JAX: Field goal
3 Q1 4:26 The Panthers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +10% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 2:15 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% JAX CAR: Punt
5 Q2 15:00 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% CAR JAX: Punt
6 Q2 10:38 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +7% JAX JAX: Field goal
7 Q2 9:21 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% JAX JAX: Field goal
8 Q2 1:05 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% CAR JAX: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB), out, replaced by c.beathard · 3.8 pts
  • Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Zay Jones (JAX WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Dicaprio Bootle (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Justin McCray (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Jaguars 100%

Final margin
Jaguars by 26
Luck in points
1.5 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 24.5
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 5% · Jaguars 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2023 games · Panthers · Jaguars

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