luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2023 · December 31, 2023

Panthers at Jaguars, Week 17 2023: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Panthers 26–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 60% favorites.

Final

Carolina Panthers 0
Jacksonville Jaguars 26

December 31, 2023 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −3.5

Luck index +2 Jaguars about even · −2 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 0, Jaguars win 10.

  1. 1 CAR 10 JAX 13
  2. 2 CAR 20 JAX 27
  3. 3 CAR 6 JAX 16
  4. 4 CAR 6 JAX 19
  5. 5 CAR 3 JAX 19
  6. 6 CAR 14 JAX 32
  7. 7 CAR 3 JAX 23
  8. 8 CAR 10 JAX 33
  9. 9 CAR 6 JAX 33
  10. 10 CAR 7 JAX 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 2% of them, Jaguars 98%. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+0.0%
Panthers by 9–160.1%
Panthers by 1–81.3%
Level after regulation0.4%
Jaguars by 1–85.8%
Jaguars by 9–1617.4%
Jaguars by 17+75.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.8 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 26, without the luck Jaguars by 23.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • B. McManus, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. McManus, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • B. McManus, 34 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 3 for 24 yards, Jaguars 1 for 15 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 7:18 Illegal Shift on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% JAX +0.8 pts
Q2 1:00 Horse Collar Tackle on the Jaguars (Caleb Johnson), 15 yards +1% CAR +1.3 pts
Q3 9:05 Face Mask on the Panthers (Brian Burns), 15 yards +2% JAX +0.8 pts
Q3 0:18 False Start on the Panthers, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.7 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:23 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% JAX JAX: Field goal
2 Q1 9:18 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +4% CAR JAX: Field goal
3 Q1 4:26 The Panthers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +7% CAR CAR: Turnover on downs
4 Q1 2:15 The Panthers were stopped on 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% JAX CAR: Punt
5 Q2 15:00 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +4% CAR JAX: Punt
6 Q2 10:38 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +5% JAX JAX: Field goal
7 Q2 9:21 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% JAX JAX: Field goal
8 Q2 1:05 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% CAR JAX: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Trevor Lawrence (JAX QB), out, replaced by c.beathard · 3.8 pts
  • Christian Kirk (JAX WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Zay Jones (JAX WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out · 0.8 pts
  • Dicaprio Bootle (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Austin Corbett (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Justin McCray (CAR C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 0% · Jaguars 100%

Final margin
Jaguars by 26
Luck in points
2.8 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 23.2
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 2% · Jaguars 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2023 games · Panthers · Jaguars

More from Week 17 2023