luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 17 2023 · December 31, 2023

Rams at Giants, Week 17 2023: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Giants 26–25, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: drops alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Rams were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:49 left): Return touchdown by the Giants, worth 38 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 26
New York Giants 25

December 31, 2023 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Rams −6

Luck index +15 Rams about even · −15 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 9, Giants win 1.

  1. 1 LA 60 NYG 25
  2. 2 LA 29 NYG 3
  3. 3 LA 37 NYG 16
  4. 4 LA 29 NYG 12
  5. 5 LA 19 NYG 6
  6. 6 LA 20 NYG 10
  7. 7 LA 20 NYG 12
  8. 8 LA 25 NYG 20
  9. 9 LA 31 NYG 29
  10. 10 LA 20 NYG 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 85% of them, Giants 15%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+47.9%
Rams by 9–1619.1%
Rams by 1–817.6%
Level after regulation1.5%
Giants by 1–88.5%
Giants by 9–164.1%
Giants by 17+1.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 points to the Rams: the final margin was Rams by 1, without the luck Rams by 0.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • M. Crosby, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • M. Crosby, 54 yds missed · 65% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Rams 3 for 28 yards, Giants 7 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 0:17 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Daniel Bellinger), 10 yards +3% LA +0.9 pts
Q2 1:44 Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants, 10 yards +4% LA +1.0 pts
Q2 1:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Rams (Jordan Fuller), 13 yards +4% NYG +0.9 pts
Q2 0:04 Leaping on the Rams (Ben Skowronek), 14 yards +7% NYG +0.6 pts
Q4 14:15 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards +7% LA +1.3 pts
Q4 12:14 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Cordale Flott), 5 yards +1% LA +0.4 pts
Q4 11:21 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Daniel Bellinger), 10 yards, wiping out the play +27% LA +5.0 pts
Q4 5:55 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +11% LA +2.3 pts
Q4 3:27 Encroachment on the Rams, 1 yard · pre-snap +6% LA 0.0 pts
Q4 1:17 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 10 yards +14% LA +0.6 pts

Rams penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:43 P. Nacua dropped a catchable passDrops · 5 drops on 112 catchable balls before this +15% NYG LA: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:04 Leaping on the Rams (Ben Skowronek), 14 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1711 snaps before, position avg 1 per 420 +7% NYG NYG: Field goal
3 Q4 11:21 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Daniel Bellinger), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1452 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +27% LA LA: Punt
4 Q4 5:55 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% LA LA: Opp touchdown
5 Q4 3:49 Return touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams +38% NYG NYG: Opp touchdown
6 Q4 3:27 The Giants’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedEncroachment on the Rams, 1 yardPre-snap flags +17% LA NYG: Missed field goal
7 Q4 1:17 Offensive Holding on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 17 flags in 1708 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +14% LA LA: End of game
8 Q4 0:35 M. Crosby missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 22 of 29 from 45+ before +37% LA –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Deonte Banks (NYG CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Randy Bullock (NYG K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Alaric Jackson (LA T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Alex Ward (LA LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 58% · Giants 42%

Final margin
Rams by 1
Luck in points
0.7 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Rams 85% · Giants 15% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2023 games · Rams · Giants

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