luckadjusted

Week 17 2023 · December 31, 2023

Packers at Vikings, Week 17 2023: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Vikings 33–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 10 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.0 points to the Vikings.

An off day for the Vikings: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q2, 9:30 left): G. Joseph made 54-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Green Bay Packers 33
Minnesota Vikings 10

December 31, 2023 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −1

Luck index +4 Packers about even · −4 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 10, Vikings win 0.

  1. 1 GB 34 MIN 0
  2. 2 GB 31 MIN 3
  3. 3 GB 23 MIN 0
  4. 4 GB 34 MIN 14
  5. 5 GB 33 MIN 16
  6. 6 GB 24 MIN 10
  7. 7 GB 24 MIN 13
  8. 8 GB 15 MIN 7
  9. 9 GB 26 MIN 21
  10. 10 GB 19 MIN 17

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Vikings

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Packers they would win 39% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.

35 points apart for the Vikings: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Packers offenseEPA per play gained +0.22 +0.10 better by 0.12
Packers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.22 +0.12 better by 0.34
Vikings offenseEPA per play gained −0.22 +0.10 worse by 0.33
Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed +0.22 +0.09 worse by 0.14

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 96% of them, Vikings 4%. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+64.2%
Packers by 9–1621.9%
Packers by 1–89.7%
Level after regulation0.3%
Vikings by 1–83.0%
Vikings by 9–160.9%
Vikings by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 23.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Carlson, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • G. Joseph, 54 yds made · 63% expected
  • A. Carlson, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 65%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:14 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +4% MIN GB: Punt
2 Q1 9:01 The Packers converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +8% GB GB: Field goal
3 Q1 6:53 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +4% MIN GB: Field goal
4 Q1 6:04 The Vikings threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% GB MIN: Punt
5 Q1 2:41 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +4% GB MIN: Punt
6 Q2 13:24 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +4% MIN GB: Touchdown
7 Q2 9:30 G. Joseph made 54-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 18 of 33 from 45+ before +9% MIN MIN: Punt
8 Q2 0:32 The Vikings fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% GB MIN: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Byron Murphy (MIN CB), out · 1.1 pts
  • T.J. Hockenson (MIN TE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • D.J. Wonnum (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Christian Watson (GB WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • De'Vondre Campbell (GB LB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Luke Musgrave (GB TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Eric Stokes (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 100% · Vikings 0%

Final margin
Packers by 23
Luck in points
0.8 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 23.8
Replay with same day's form
Packers 96% · Vikings 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2023 games · Packers · Vikings

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