luckadjusted

2023 season · final

Green Bay Packers, 2023: game by game

The Packers went 9–8 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.6 wins. Luck added 0.4: the 14th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–5.

Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.0.

Every game

How often the Packers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Bears W 38–20 58% +42
Week 2 @ Falcons L 24–25 62% −62
Week 3 vs Saints W 18–17 74% +26
Week 4 vs Lions L 20–34 6% −6
Week 5 @ Raiders L 13–17 19% −19
Week 7 @ Broncos L 17–19 37% −37
Week 8 vs Vikings L 10–24 7% −7
Week 9 vs Rams W 20–3 75% +25
Week 10 @ Steelers L 19–23 51% −51
Week 11 vs Chargers W 23–20 33% +67
Week 12 @ Lions W 29–22 57% +43
Week 13 vs Chiefs W 27–19 25% +75
Week 14 @ Giants L 22–24 73% −73
Week 15 vs Buccaneers L 20–34 25% −25
Week 16 @ Panthers W 33–30 78% +22
Week 17 @ Vikings W 33–10 96% +4
Week 18 vs Bears W 17–9 90% +10
Wild Card @ Cowboys W 48–32 66% +34
Divisional round @ 49ers L 21–24 29% −29

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Packers’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Fumble bounces+22.0+1.30
3rd & 4th downs+13.5+0.79
Drops+12.7+0.74
Judgment calls+7.6+0.45
Kicks+0.2+0.01
Injuries−1.2−0.07