2023 season · final
Green Bay Packers, 2023: game by game
The Packers went 9–8 in 2023; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.8 wins. Luck added 0.2: the 15th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–5.
Playoffs: 1–1, replay wins 1.1.
Every game
How often the Packers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Bears | W 38–20 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 2 | @ Falcons | L 24–25 | 61% | −61 |
| Week 3 | vs Saints | W 18–17 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 4 | vs Lions | L 20–34 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 5 | @ Raiders | L 13–17 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 7 | @ Broncos | L 17–19 | 22% | −22 |
| Week 8 | vs Vikings | L 10–24 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 9 | vs Rams | W 20–3 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 10 | @ Steelers | L 19–23 | 51% | −51 |
| Week 11 | vs Chargers | W 23–20 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 12 | @ Lions | W 29–22 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 13 | vs Chiefs | W 27–19 | 42% | +58 |
| Week 14 | @ Giants | L 22–24 | 63% | −63 |
| Week 15 | vs Buccaneers | L 20–34 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 16 | @ Panthers | W 33–30 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 17 | @ Vikings | W 33–10 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 18 | vs Bears | W 17–9 | 85% | +15 |
| Wild Card | @ Cowboys | W 48–32 | 80% | +20 |
| Divisional round | @ 49ers | L 21–24 | 31% | −31 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Packers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.90 | +28.9 |
| Drops | +0.82 | +20.9 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.16 | +11.3 |
| Kicks | +0.14 | +0.6 |
| Judgment calls | +0.06 | +2.3 |
| Injuries | −0.02 | −0.9 |