luckadjusted

Week 8 2023 · October 29, 2023

Falcons at Titans, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Falcons 28–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Titans win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:33 left): the Falcons were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 20 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 23
Tennessee Titans 28

October 29, 2023 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −2.5

Luck index +52 Titans lucky · −52 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 5, Titans win 5.

  1. 1 ATL 36 TEN 10
  2. 2 ATL 32 TEN 16
  3. 3 ATL 30 TEN 20
  4. 4 ATL 23 TEN 17
  5. 5 ATL 29 TEN 27
  6. 6 ATL 25 TEN 27
  7. 7 ATL 16 TEN 23
  8. 8 ATL 14 TEN 26
  9. 9 ATL 30 TEN 47
  10. 10 ATL 10 TEN 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 52% of them, Titans 48%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+13.6%
Falcons by 9–1614.7%
Falcons by 1–820.2%
Level after regulation4.9%
Titans by 1–818.9%
Titans by 9–1613.9%
Titans by 17+13.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 13.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 49 yds made · 78% expected
  • Y. Koo, 39 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:06 The Titans fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% ATL TEN: Punt
2 Q1 7:50 The Titans converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +7% TEN TEN: Punt
3 Q2 8:26 The Falcons fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TEN ATL: Punt
4 Q3 5:21 The Falcons converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +7% ATL ATL: Field goal
5 Q4 14:22 The Falcons converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +7% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q4 14:17 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +13% ATL ATL: Punt
7 Q4 2:36 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% ATL TEN: Punt
8 Q4 1:33 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedV. Jefferson dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 41 catchable balls before this +20% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN QB), out, replaced by w.levis · 3.9 pts
  • Roger McCreary (TEN CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 3% · Titans 97%

Final margin
Titans by 5
Luck in points
8.0 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 13.0
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 52% · Titans 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Falcons · Titans

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