luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2023 · October 29, 2023

Falcons at Titans, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Falcons 28–23, but the replays lean toward the Falcons: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: drops alone were worth 23 points of win probability to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Falcons were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:33 left): V. Jefferson dropped a catchable pass, worth 24 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 23
Tennessee Titans 28

October 29, 2023 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Falcons −2.5

Luck index +69 Titans very lucky · −69 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 7, Titans win 3.

  1. 1 ATL 43 TEN 13
  2. 2 ATL 50 TEN 30
  3. 3 ATL 26 TEN 10
  4. 4 ATL 33 TEN 21
  5. 5 ATL 15 TEN 7
  6. 6 ATL 23 TEN 19
  7. 7 ATL 17 TEN 15
  8. 8 ATL 23 TEN 26
  9. 9 ATL 24 TEN 34
  10. 10 ATL 13 TEN 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 69% of them, Titans 31%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+25.3%
Falcons by 9–1618.9%
Falcons by 1–823.0%
Level after regulation3.5%
Titans by 1–814.1%
Titans by 9–169.8%
Titans by 17+5.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.7 points to the Falcons: the final margin was Titans by 5, without the luck Titans by 5.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 49 yds made · 77% expected
  • Y. Koo, 39 yds made · 91% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 3 for 15 yards, Titans 6 for 53 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:02 Illegal Shift on the Falcons (Van Jefferson), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +0.9 pts
Q1 4:30 Offensive Holding on the Titans (Monty Rice), 10 yards +1% ATL +0.8 pts
Q2 4:51 False Start on the Falcons, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.6 pts
Q2 1:02 False Start on the Titans (Will Levis), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ATL +0.3 pts
Q3 7:32 Offensive Pass Interference on the Titans (DeAndre Hopkins), 9 yards +2% ATL +0.9 pts
Q4 14:17 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +13% ATL +3.2 pts
Q4 12:00 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Tre Avery), 15 yards +3% ATL +1.2 pts
Q4 8:06 Defensive Holding on the Falcons (David Onyemata), 5 yards +2% TEN +0.9 pts
Q4 3:54 Roughing the Passer on the Titans (Harold Landry), 9 yards, wiping out the play +4% ATL +1.3 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:06 The Titans fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% ATL TEN: Punt
2 Q2 8:26 The Falcons fumbled and the Titans recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% TEN ATL: Punt
3 Q3 5:21 The Falcons converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% ATL ATL: Field goal
4 Q4 14:17 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +13% ATL ATL: Punt
5 Q4 12:28 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% ATL TEN: Punt
6 Q4 9:45 The Titans got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +6% TEN TEN: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:36 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% ATL TEN: Punt
8 Q4 1:33 V. Jefferson dropped a catchable passDrops · 2 drops on 41 catchable balls before this +24% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Tannehill (TEN QB), out, replaced by w.levis · 3.9 pts
  • Roger McCreary (TEN CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Troy Andersen (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 25% · Titans 75%

Final margin
Titans by 5
Luck in points
0.7 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 5.7
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 69% · Titans 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Falcons · Titans

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