luckadjusted

Week 8 2023 · October 29, 2023

Eagles at Commanders, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Commanders 38–31, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 8.7 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Eagles were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:21 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 31 yards, worth 18 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 38
Washington Commanders 31

October 29, 2023 · FedExField · Closing line: Eagles −7

Luck index +59 Eagles lucky · −59 Commanders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 4, Commanders win 6.

  1. 1 PHI 35 WAS 13
  2. 2 PHI 42 WAS 31
  3. 3 PHI 30 WAS 24
  4. 4 PHI 19 WAS 17
  5. 5 PHI 24 WAS 26
  6. 6 PHI 16 WAS 21
  7. 7 PHI 17 WAS 25
  8. 8 PHI 16 WAS 28
  9. 9 PHI 20 WAS 37
  10. 10 PHI 12 WAS 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 41% of them, Commanders 59%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+9.2%
Eagles by 9–1613.0%
Eagles by 1–817.8%
Level after regulation2.9%
Commanders by 1–824.6%
Commanders by 9–1616.5%
Commanders by 17+16.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 0.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 51 yds made · 72% expected
  • J. Slye, 61 yds made · 54% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Commanders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Commanders were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 10:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Commanders (Benjamin St-Juste), 31 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1559 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +18% PHI PHI: Turnover
2 Q3 10:16 The Eagles fumbled and the Commanders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% WAS PHI: Touchdown
3 Q3 5:38 The Eagles converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +10% PHI PHI: Touchdown
4 Q3 4:22 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +14% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 12:06 The Commanders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +16% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q4 8:10 The Commanders threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 46% expected to stay out of the defense's handsUnnecessary Roughness on the Commanders (John Bates), 8 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1485 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +9% PHI WAS: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 4:23 The Commanders were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedT. McLaurin dropped a catchable passDrops · 3 drops on 126 catchable balls before this +9% PHI WAS: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 4:18 The Commanders were stopped on 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +7% PHI WAS: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cody Barton (WAS LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darrick Forrest (WAS FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Saahdiq Charles (WAS G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Quez Watkins (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Cam Jurgens (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Justin Evans (PHI FS), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 51% · Commanders 49%

Final margin
Eagles by 7
Luck in points
6.2 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 41% · Commanders 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Eagles · Commanders

More from Week 8 2023