luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2023 · October 29, 2023

Browns at Seahawks, Week 8 2023: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Browns 24–20, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Seahawks win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 14 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:04 left): the Browns were intercepted on a well-placed throw, worth 29 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Cleveland Browns 20
Seattle Seahawks 24

October 29, 2023 · Lumen Field · Closing line: Seahawks −4

Luck index +59 Seahawks lucky · −59 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 6, Seahawks win 4.

  1. 1 CLE 44 SEA 17
  2. 2 CLE 41 SEA 23
  3. 3 CLE 38 SEA 24
  4. 4 CLE 16 SEA 6
  5. 5 CLE 20 SEA 14
  6. 6 CLE 32 SEA 29
  7. 7 CLE 14 SEA 17
  8. 8 CLE 13 SEA 21
  9. 9 CLE 16 SEA 30
  10. 10 CLE 26 SEA 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 59% of them, Seahawks 41%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+16.8%
Browns by 9–1616.3%
Browns by 1–823.8%
Level after regulation2.9%
Seahawks by 1–818.1%
Seahawks by 9–1613.6%
Seahawks by 17+8.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.8 points to the Seahawks: the final margin was Seahawks by 4, without the luck Seahawks by 2.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Myers, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 27 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 4 for 25 yards, Seahawks 7 for 43 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:00 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Seahawks (D'Wayne Eskridge), 10 yards +3% CLE +0.9 pts
Q1 2:44 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Maurice Hurst Jr.), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +1% CLE 0.0 pts
Q2 6:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 6 yards +5% CLE +2.6 pts
Q2 5:06 Roughing the Passer on the Seahawks (Mario Edwards), 1 yard +1% CLE +0.4 pts
Q2 4:37 Illegal Use of Hands on the Seahawks, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% CLE +1.7 pts
Q3 13:18 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% SEA +0.7 pts
Q3 1:22 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +2% SEA +0.9 pts
Q3 0:48 Illegal Use of Hands on the Seahawks (Devon Witherspoon), 5 yards +3% CLE +1.3 pts
Q4 6:43 False Start on the Seahawks (Will Dissly), 6 yards · pre-snap +7% CLE +0.9 pts
Q4 3:34 Illegal Use of Hands on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 5 yards +3% CLE +0.9 pts
Q4 0:44 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% SEA +0.5 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Seahawks penalties, every game · All teams, 2023

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 19% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:35 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Riq Woolen), 6 yardsJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1629 snaps before, position avg 1 per 216 +5% CLE CLE: Touchdown
2 Q2 2:00 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% SEA CLE: Punt
3 Q2 0:27 The Seahawks threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +6% CLE SEA: Punt
4 Q3 2:57 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% SEA CLE: Field goal
5 Q4 6:43 False Start on the Seahawks (Will Dissly), 6 yardsPre-snap flags · 10 flags in 2779 snaps before, position avg 1 per 286 +7% CLE CLE: Turnover
6 Q4 2:04 The Browns were intercepted on a well-placed throwInterceptions · defenses pick off well under 1% of clean throws +29% SEA CLE: Turnover on downs
7 Q4 0:44 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Browns, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +6% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:38 The Browns got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 49% of interception-worthy throws +16% CLE CLE: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Abraham Lucas (SEA T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Coby Bryant (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Uchenna Nwosu (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Phil Haynes (SEA G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Nick Chubb (CLE RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 40% · Seahawks 60%

Final margin
Seahawks by 4
Luck in points
1.8 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 2.2
Replay with same day's form
Browns 59% · Seahawks 41% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2023 games · Browns · Seahawks

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